TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,282,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,078,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,282,110 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,809 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba4e…44a1backed Yes32c54,702$17,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,197.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe531…faa5backed No68c54,702$37,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,197.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes63c51,241$32,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,080.412626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2066…80dcbacked No78c45,124$35,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,196.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8f…0e47backed Yes22c45,124$9,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,196.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea0e…2eefbacked No3c44,247$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked No36c43,330$15,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,685.061010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-83.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed No0c43,041$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.45166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No9c42,627$3,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,875.681741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+69.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes59c36,097$21,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,624.353315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2974…c2fcbacked No9c34,970$3,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No37c32,213$11,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,824.6141238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf7…36c8backed No59c30,028$17,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,716.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7b9…8d7fbacked Yes41c30,028$12,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,716.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+79.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked No40c28,959$11,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,445.421729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+63.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No55c22,240$12,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,125.91931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes49c21,900$10,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,065.657331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes63c20,684$13,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,610.2612649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No8c20,650$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.613912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes63c20,648$13,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,596.5711541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2b7…b59cbacked No0c19,958$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No9c19,370$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.383831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41ff…adc4backed No13c19,116$2,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,565.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb92…2dd5backed No9c19,015$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4059…3371backed No22c17,506$3,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed No5c17,183$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.87540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed No12c17,000$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,062.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes61c16,937$10,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,535.867441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe583…bbd7backed No11c16,740$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2893…1534backed No23c15,949$3,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,644.95728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6348…0fafbacked No7c15,939$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8005…8de3backed No45c14,551$6,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,575650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No19c14,384$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-80.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca5…81e9backed No9c14,107$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed No4c12,781$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2436…1858backed No8c12,734$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c17…83c8backed Yes60c12,263$7,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,957.97850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d11…3d1abacked No9c11,704$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.2120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b0c…00f4backed No12c11,196$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes50c11,164$5,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,530.773253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes53c11,160$5,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,248.915137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No3c10,834$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.6912910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No8c10,745$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0592…70e7backed No25c10,206$2,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.46714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-76.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No10c10,047$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.294542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe771…1251backed No6c9,789$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No39c9,598$3,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,733.9437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4417…90e3backed No14c9,473$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes62c9,425$5,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,581.7413540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b5…b5f3backed No21c9,423$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Yes52c9,410$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,550.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bb5…5c36backed No10c9,345$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c9,024$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.371343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No10c8,979$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.186230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes71c8,968$6,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,621.962821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No14c8,840$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.832626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No11c8,345$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.62110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ff…e0b8backed Yes21c8,210$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,481.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+70.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes32c7,989$2,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,398.455756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe50d…7979backed No38c7,891$2,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,973.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4948…08bdbacked No13c7,595$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cfe…5e2fbacked Yes17c7,468$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,178.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4be…76b7backed No42c7,359$3,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,117.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecab…6a63backed No17c7,120$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed No79c7,040$5,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,532.362321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No60c7,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2001656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No10c6,796$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.032630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed No44c6,774$2,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,980.521323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f6…15c4backed No45c6,637$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc3…3e38backed No41c6,593$2,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…fd14backed No31c6,485$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked No40c6,453$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5701625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Yes36c6,030$2,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,837.323930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No1c6,019$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.77293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked Yes80c6,000$4,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.081612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-79.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed No30c6,000$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.1650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61c…fb50backed No19c5,946$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes58c5,901$3,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,462.4317850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fef…0cc5backed No27c5,892$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.772425%6 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0f…f088backed No12c5,822$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed No47c5,789$2,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.3683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+70.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No24c5,767$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.553240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed No59c5,685$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,374.653119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes40c5,620$2,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.034934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…881cbacked No11c5,593$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No2c5,358$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.776530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ce…f74dbacked No40c5,321$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2984…c4b0backed No1c5,283$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes25c5,250$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,955.577051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No41c5,207$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.6555618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No17c5,187$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.08166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes61c5,154$3,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.431947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc57…cf74backed No6c5,149$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e0f…9556backed No45c5,145$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.42933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b2d…46c2backed No43c5,131$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb08c…8993backed No31c5,121$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5449…b041backed No38c5,116$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed No9c5,000$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.2750%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed No11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53f…f455backed Yes66c5,000$3,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.