TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$835,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$608,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $835,395 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d11…3d1abacked Yes0c54,521$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.61120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c32,578$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.58110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes0c22,639$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4218425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c14,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.691,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d4e…7196backed Yes3c12,379$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.31822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c11,329$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8312910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c7,472$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c7,162$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.161020%2 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-64%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e57…53b3backed Yes3c7,159$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd753…23fdbacked Yes1c7,070$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a9…ff44backed Yes1c7,065$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca84…a500backed Yes1c7,065$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7d…6d8abacked Yes1c7,040$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes0c7,034$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192015%3 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cc3…3e38backed Yes3c6,857$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c6,509$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78cf…d4f0backed Yes0c5,910$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f83…1e9dbacked Yes0c5,843$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c2c…f036backed Yes1c5,030$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…d168backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes4c4,300$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.363432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b9…198cbacked Yes0c3,148$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes6c3,136$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1999426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes1c2,965$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.263225%8 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c2,916$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.328015%12 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes3c2,912$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f11…be8dbacked Yes1c2,738$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.16812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-80.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes2c2,600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.872821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes2c2,472$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.73336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-91.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeffd…c544backed Yes1c2,345$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee3d…501bbacked Yes4c2,275$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes2c2,208$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Yes13c2,049$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.872317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x543f…9dafbacked Yes4c1,999$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.56812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-67.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes7c1,898$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12917452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6010…aa9cbacked Yes1c1,856$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2490%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd26…fc76backed Yes14c1,764$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes2c1,545$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes7c1,531$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes13c1,372$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.383844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb0backed Yes4c1,350$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.231010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-76.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes7c1,282$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.898020%16 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed Yes14c1,062$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0167…0d88backed Yes11c1,062$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.371127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes15c1,000$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.957646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd789…49c6backed Yes1c950.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes3c943.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c931.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.653989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes14c899.98$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaefe…d7d4backed Yes3c879.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-63.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b16…45e7backed Yes2c876.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaceb…048dbacked Yes4c852$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b45…39b8backed Yes7c817.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe469…4016backed Yes17c774$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes14c726.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9a…3b6abacked Yes4c722$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…d07ebacked Yes3c700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1963…94dcbacked Yes3c697$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a39…a5d0backed Yes3c618$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes14c600.47$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fef…0cc5backed Yes2c595.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102425%6 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe348…8ca4backed Yes4c592.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes3c588.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0814624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3813…4aeabacked Yes2c568$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1024…9c39backed Yes4c555$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x619a…c599backed Yes3c550.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb33…c3d6backed Yes6c518.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…f255backed Yes2c517$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03dd…003bbacked Yes3c511$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc57b…8281backed Yes3c510$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-78.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4342…b657backed Yes4c504.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148823.9%21 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+51.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3f0…cf6dbacked Yes15c500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2db…d5b7backed Yes7c493.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes15c491.95$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.69527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8706…e09cbacked Yes3c489$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce82…cdf1backed Yes2c476$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…7f0ebacked Yes3c461$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes4c454.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72b8…01eebacked Yes3c453$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1419…6f20backed Yes2c453$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77de…b4d7backed Yes3c443$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc96…476cbacked Yes4c440$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7061…110cbacked Yes4c436$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9666…5efcbacked Yes2c435.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d0…3bc8backed Yes4c431$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c0f…8cb2backed Yes3c413$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes3c409.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a1b…0163backed Yes3c396$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…0efbbacked Yes3c380$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c4…14f4backed Yes3c349$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c0…04c9backed Yes4c345$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf2…d9acbacked Yes3c338$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d48…e34dbacked Yes3c332.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f1…1ecebacked Yes6c331$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes9c324.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.139522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c05…b615backed Yes5c320$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb21…51bebacked Yes16c315.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.