TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,280,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,012,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,280,140 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 614 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea0e…2eefbacked Yes4c115,666$4,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,384.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c7…41babacked Yes16c87,009$13,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,921.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da5…1025backed Yes17c65,742$11,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,176.1440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c16,551$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.581428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes6c16,004$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.7166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb056…ba73backed Yes7c15,565$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c15,227$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.033912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9265…574fbacked Yes8c13,500$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c12,625$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6312910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf6d…22a0backed Yes5c11,736$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes27c10,127$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.71010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-83.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd73…08ecbacked Yes6c10,002$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes7c9,299$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed Yes1c9,031$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.772420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked Yes9c8,788$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c05…0205backed Yes7c7,720$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes17c7,690$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.451931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…77d9backed Yes19c7,329$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+74.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes13c7,321$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.823315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes18c7,311$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.651729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+63.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7361…7058backed Yes26c6,799$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Yes8c6,470$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ff…adc4backed Yes5c6,409$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7777…ff98backed Yes9c5,871$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes6c5,662$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.21425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c5,574$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.131,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc727…2b13backed Yes1c5,519$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes18c5,473$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.983253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2b7…b59cbacked Yes0c5,019$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes10c5,006$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x619a…c599backed Yes10c5,003$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c4,572$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.351343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c5b…78b8backed Yes4c4,514$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes10c4,396$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.3611541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes15c4,372$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.527331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes7c4,290$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x609e…a64fbacked Yes10c4,092$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56d…7500backed Yes4c3,890$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc096…8159backed Yes9c3,486$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes8c3,330$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.462653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No80c3,130$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick68cpaid-42.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed Yes6c3,125$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+65.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec0…b035backed Yes6c3,049$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes12c3,046$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.716725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x546b…0405backed Yes4c3,000$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de9…a126backed Yes10c2,975$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…c4b6backed Yes4c2,843$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes9c2,776$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.31127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-58.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes5c2,727$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.22319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes7c2,700$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.76277.4%2 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes7c2,699$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.4490%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d30…9357backed Yes33c2,680$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc6…dfe9backed Yes14c2,628$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f82…d6abbacked Yes6c2,626$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.61225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…7f98backed Yes6c2,623$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ed…81e8backed Yes5c2,576$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a5…f001backed Yes21c2,515$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.8920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf079…874dbacked Yes20c2,478$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes3c2,458$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.936241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes7c2,346$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.518750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes9c2,327$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0592…70e7backed Yes9c2,300$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.21714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-76.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ee…27cfbacked Yes12c2,267$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes7c2,247$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes2c2,212$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.55333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes20c2,076$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.922035%7 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-45.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes14c2,068$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.95812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-80.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes3c2,051$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.03812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-75.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7871…b58ebacked Yes5c2,027$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x715d…5cfbbacked Yes4c2,006$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef45…666fbacked Yes10c2,004$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked Yes8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes12c2,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Yes2c1,996$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Yes9c1,925$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.591833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed No67c1,885$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.81947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes5c1,800$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.63444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Yes12c1,734$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31cf…4cd0backed Yes13c1,731$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes4c1,710$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.542123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes7c1,709$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.84827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes8c1,703$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.222030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes8c1,700$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.983432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes19c1,696$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.561118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e4…89bebacked Yes6c1,600$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16f…5f84backed Yes6c1,582$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcecf…78b2backed Yes7c1,580$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes6c1,557$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.583414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa962…8978backed Yes32c1,547$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-61.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0952…a44bbacked Yes3c1,540$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes7c1,530$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79aa…f570backed Yes11c1,524$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32fe…eb6fbacked Yes7c1,515$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes8c1,506$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.581466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes11c1,504$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5311347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa696…b081backed Yes15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e86…29abbacked Yes10c1,487$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed Yes9c1,456$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.732020%4 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x832d…4d62backed Yes4c1,451$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5225…ae99backed Yes11c1,426$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16380%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.