TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$814,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$625,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $814,925 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d11…3d1abacked Yes0c53,365$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.24120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c35,589$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.25110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b3…f093backed Yes0c19,021$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c15,942$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.44319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes0c12,912$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9118425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c12,194$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6912910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c10,600$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71020%2 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-64%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes1c10,324$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4e…7196backed Yes3c9,552$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.031822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,277$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.491,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b32…abb9backed Yes1c7,362$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7644…0471backed Yes1c7,090$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2552…66bbbacked Yes1c7,065$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes1c6,843$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc3…3e38backed Yes4c6,662$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb89…9fdfbacked Yes0c6,015$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.031020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-64.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf935…51abbacked Yes9c5,575$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f0…cf6dbacked Yes8c4,600$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.0340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ff0…39e5backed Yes5c4,445$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc153…8585backed Yes2c4,055$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f11…be8dbacked Yes1c4,044$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.31812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-80.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec6…ef46backed Yes3c3,930$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-79.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f83…1e9dbacked Yes1c3,258$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes10c3,000$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.49527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes1c2,933$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.682821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes1c2,834$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.13336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-91.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Yes8c2,579$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes1c2,443$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.73432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes7c2,432$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.89220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes0c2,263$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.126833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6010…aa9cbacked Yes1c2,136$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes8c1,894$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe469…4016backed Yes10c1,777$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefe…d7d4backed Yes1c1,763$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-63.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd26…fc76backed Yes9c1,615$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes9c1,610$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.393033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…5257backed Yes4c1,538$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked Yes7c1,450$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c1,388$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.273989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34b…9a85backed Yes1c1,337$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac53…378abacked Yes1c1,318$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes9c1,104$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x718c…d9cdbacked Yes3c1,022$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa405…fe9dbacked Yes5c978.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c926.43$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5155618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…4219backed Yes6c906$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4593…4f46backed Yes1c899.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd789…49c6backed Yes1c891.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c846.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfd…8b51backed Yes4c740$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3170%0 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6d74…09ffbacked Yes1c734.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a0…e683backed Yes3c728$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d5a…b872backed Yes3c723$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes7c666$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.188820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8e2…65b8backed Yes3c647$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6985…7bccbacked Yes3c638.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e2…ec51backed Yes3c627$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2db…d5b7backed Yes5c617.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa5…c9abbacked Yes3c615$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes4c610.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259837.8%37 W · 61 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Yes10c601$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes6c596.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.239426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7cb…0abbbacked Yes4c586$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf865…d8b0backed Yes8c577.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.451338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11ec…77a1backed Yes4c572$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes5c552.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.755616.1%9 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4342…b657backed Yes4c541.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e3…4511backed Yes4c533$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1c…4105backed Yes3c532$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdacf…f9b9backed Yes3c531$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f5…43ecbacked Yes3c503$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafb8…4822backed Yes4c502.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.58823.9%21 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+51.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked Yes4c499.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.052250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49a3…a77bbacked Yes2c497$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2f…fc55backed Yes3c496$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3414…de5fbacked Yes5c491$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc23c…d40abacked Yes7c487$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaccc…eae1backed Yes3c447$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaeb…ebf8backed Yes3c441$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5903…fa2fbacked Yes5c439$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Yes5c435.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204422.7%10 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9c…3150backed Yes3c431$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4b…9aeebacked Yes3c422$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb21…51bebacked Yes12c418.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8aa…e6d3backed Yes5c412$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd58d…8452backed Yes3c407$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa722…2682backed Yes5c406$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3623…1a9cbacked Yes3c390$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a2…1d68backed Yes3c389$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf65e…3850backed Yes8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e39…0e97backed Yes3c370$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d64…a740backed Yes3c370$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0c…6d5cbacked Yes3c363$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9600…4b50backed Yes5c358$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d4…7b09backed Yes3c327.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f04…d548backed Yes3c322$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdece…5547backed Yes6c294$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cd6…d22fbacked Yes7c286.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.