TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$732,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$461,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $732,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d11…3d1abacked Yes1c53,523$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.95120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c34,322$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.65110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes0c26,922$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2118425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c15,333$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c12,406$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6111419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c12,087$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5912910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes0c11,768$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.563625%9 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d4e…7196backed Yes3c11,316$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.471822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb89…9fdfbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-64.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes0c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7990%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,838$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.281,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f83…1e9dbacked Yes0c8,965$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4f11…be8dbacked Yes1c8,116$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.93812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-80.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c4a…cf81backed Yes1c7,150$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c6,165$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8824…5c8bbacked Yes3c6,100$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c5,925$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes1c5,769$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.172821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x910d…5a46backed Yes3c5,314$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b32…abb9backed Yes2c5,264$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5abb…5a2fbacked Yes0c5,240$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes1c4,733$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282015%3 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c4,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51020%2 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-64%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x816e…7257backed Yes3c4,014$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes2c3,789$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.223432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78cf…d4f0backed Yes0c3,400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd26…fc76backed Yes8c3,116$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes1c3,027$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes8c2,999$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.797646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes2c2,657$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.79336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-91.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes1c2,586$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1338…3938backed Yes7c2,146$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b9…198cbacked Yes0c2,069$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c47…5a56backed Yes2c2,011$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes1c1,984$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa470…f6bdbacked Yes1c1,966$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc3…3e38backed Yes6c1,889$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.450%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe06e…f7c2backed Yes18c1,861$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes1c1,559$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5210950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9682…738bbacked Yes1c1,515$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.37911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-65.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c1,407$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.213989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed Yes11c1,353$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes3c1,313$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6010…aa9cbacked Yes2c1,311$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9790%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb33…c3d6backed Yes4c1,305$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes12c1,142$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.128820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes3c1,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262035%7 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+951.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb0backed Yes2c1,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.061010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-76.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes12c900.27$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.662213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0720…f481backed Yes1c882.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0167…0d88backed Yes3c791.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b4…b9dbbacked Yes2c736$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c693$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6355618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc961…37f6backed Yes3c687$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d74…09ffbacked Yes1c673.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes7c631.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.188020%16 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes8c623.18$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.39220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes4c600$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.826530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b8…b48bbacked Yes3c595$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0da…1f3cbacked Yes3c580.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14de…dcb4backed Yes3c565$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd25a…6fdebacked Yes2c541.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Yes8c505.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58823.9%21 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+51.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56bd…2073backed Yes2c495$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f14…c95cbacked Yes3c484$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802b…40fcbacked Yes3c470$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc356…881dbacked Yes4c436.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c5b…69d6backed Yes5c435$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6812…ddd3backed Yes3c412$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5870…2d0cbacked Yes3c411$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x266b…a8e1backed Yes4c405$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes4c400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8939522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd5…12dbbacked Yes3c382$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3be6…a7bfbacked Yes3c377$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6882…6a84backed Yes8c375.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3835…633bbacked Yes3c371$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b9e…5aa5backed Yes5c362$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5191…2a1ebacked Yes3c352$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c0c…f106backed Yes3c343$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299c…e3f6backed Yes4c339$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04e1…8fe7backed Yes3c326$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes9c320$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+65.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ae…7a93backed Yes3c308$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Yes7c303.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204422.7%10 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes11c300.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes7c296.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe04…9dadbacked Yes5c272$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1c…d9d8backed Yes5c266$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bad…5b70backed Yes6c263.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffa0…f6bfbacked Yes5c259$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac2a…957ebacked Yes5c244$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f6…3c85backed Yes11c227$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fa…59f9backed Yes11c226$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c05…c535backed Yes5c212$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes14c210$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.971136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98fc…4986backed Yes5c201$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes12c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f3…06c3backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.