TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$952,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$638,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $952,438 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d11…3d1abacked Yes0c54,584$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.03120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…7c99backed Yes11c44,200$4,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,86220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c32,890$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.56110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes0c25,400$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0310330.1%31 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c15,333$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c13,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2812910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ec…f1a4backed Yes0c11,440$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.32100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c11,201$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.061,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb89…9fdfbacked Yes0c11,200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.41020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-64.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes0c11,080$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.163625%9 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78d4…d909backed Yes1c10,705$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2b…b10ebacked Yes1c10,630$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd892…fd8cbacked Yes1c10,615$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78e4…62cabacked Yes0c10,147$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes0c10,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9990%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4e…7196backed Yes2c8,559$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.541822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c8,321$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdefd…99c5backed Yes0c8,249$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes0c7,499$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf6d…22a0backed Yes0c5,807$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes2c5,787$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.313432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa470…f6bdbacked Yes0c5,764$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c5,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51020%2 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-64%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes1c5,455$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.142821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes1c5,385$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432015%3 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28f9…2e90backed Yes0c5,250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c4,820$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0711419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f83…1e9dbacked Yes0c4,611$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes2c4,485$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes0c4,160$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.081020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-70.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x816e…7257backed Yes3c4,022$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f11…be8dbacked Yes1c3,891$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.91812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-80.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes1c3,823$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a30…97aabacked Yes0c3,686$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16a…b564backed Yes1c3,600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a99…2e19backed Yes1c3,357$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes6c3,351$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.687646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x910d…5a46backed Yes3c2,985$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes1c2,705$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.91254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde85…147bbacked Yes0c2,569$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e3…0a58backed Yes0c2,504$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes1c2,363$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.143225%8 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…d168backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6010…aa9cbacked Yes1c1,920$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.490%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes1c1,833$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c47…5a56backed Yes3c1,831$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70e9…adeabacked Yes1c1,828$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb602…c112backed Yes3c1,827$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4c…ec0cbacked Yes6c1,577$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dee…53d5backed Yes1c1,492$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f5…a5ebbacked Yes3c1,489$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes8c1,448$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.572213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe06e…f7c2backed Yes23c1,349$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c1,222$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.163989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15e…ba77backed Yes2c1,156$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed Yes13c1,120$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes6c1,044$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.088020%16 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes7c1,011$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.139522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.823543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb0backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.981010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-76.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes1c999.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40c5…6878backed Yes1c974.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd26…fc76backed Yes10c962.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes3c893.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6dc…6b7ebacked Yes2c885.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0167…0d88backed Yes2c876.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc3…3e38backed Yes3c833.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes2c825.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-91.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b2f…1efebacked Yes2c766$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0da…1f3cbacked Yes3c744.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes14c738.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes2c721.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7592…94d2backed Yes3c693.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c665.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.121466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc67b…aa2fbacked Yes3c646.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe051…73edbacked Yes6c515.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58823.9%21 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+51.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8301…2c0bbacked Yes5c468$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd9…0454backed Yes6c439.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5a…b249backed Yes3c427$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x687a…1ec7backed Yes3c416$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f8…d49dbacked Yes2c402$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3c3…f78cbacked Yes5c395.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fcb…8edabacked Yes4c384$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes12c362.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5916725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x376d…24f4backed Yes6c339.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a7…2f14backed Yes9c305$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1612…0bccbacked Yes5c297$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f40…06d8backed Yes5c293$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc3…0a59backed Yes9c287$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44b…34fdbacked Yes6c268$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes10c259$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes9c242$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.786221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b28…04f8backed Yes5c235$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3403…00ecbacked Yes6c231$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a6f…2728backed Yes9c222$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb1…7130backed Yes9c218$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1197…6d6ebacked Yes5c213$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af6…e6e6backed Yes9c203$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f3…06c3backed Yes11c199.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.