TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$747,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$422,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $747,229 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c28,396$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.561,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d11…3d1abacked Yes1c22,232$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.02120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes1c20,868$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.37166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c16,705$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.79736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes0c16,256$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.023625%9 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c13,788$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9412910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes1c12,747$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.061020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-70.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes1c10,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead7…c6e0backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2974…c2fcbacked Yes3c9,877$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x07ce…db5cbacked Yes1c7,898$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b6f…09ecbacked Yes5c7,875$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes1c7,600$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.483613.9%5 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes1c7,535$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.141947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0592…70e7backed Yes7c7,379$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.61714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-76.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5225…ae99backed Yes2c7,330$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12180%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb89…9fdfbacked Yes1c7,079$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.841020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-64.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e3…c122backed Yes3c6,782$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78e4…62cabacked Yes0c6,456$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e29…9ac6backed Yes2c6,191$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a6…c54abacked Yes0c6,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-82%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c4,925$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.371343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc727…2b13backed Yes0c4,923$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1199…d5f9backed Yes0c4,843$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6970%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f42…78fcbacked Yes4c4,687$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes1c4,463$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.291741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+69.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4cc6…dfe9backed Yes3c4,462$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c4,329$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.621466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed Yes2c4,215$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes2c4,178$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742015%3 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7ec…f1a4backed Yes5c4,025$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.11100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…a3a4backed Yes2c4,011$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes6c3,937$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.842821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x41ff…adc4backed Yes3c3,849$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62eb…3714backed Yes1c3,838$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d4e…7196backed Yes2c3,816$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.231822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes1c3,813$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.44277.4%2 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e86…29abbacked Yes1c3,659$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6170%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f82…d6abbacked Yes2c3,486$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2344…7756backed Yes6c3,349$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3592…c81abacked Yes1c3,246$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c3,213$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.89827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes3c3,165$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb60b…b0ffbacked Yes2c3,052$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59da…ee69backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b32…abb9backed Yes10c2,953$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes1c2,939$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.036241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf52e…ce0abacked Yes1c2,918$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f83…1e9dbacked Yes1c2,755$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6f56…1b3fbacked Yes7c2,750$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf6d…22a0backed Yes1c2,695$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb504…624dbacked Yes0c2,621$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc70a…4642backed Yes1c2,526$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78cf…d4f0backed Yes1c2,521$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c1…dd55backed Yes1c2,512$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes1c2,466$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…07f1backed Yes5c2,398$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5bd…169abacked Yes1c2,307$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.89714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes3c2,263$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.683432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0026…1ed5backed Yes4c2,223$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d7…5253backed Yes0c2,160$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa4…33efbacked Yes2c2,045$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda48…30fcbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7170…0534backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69da…f98cbacked Yes5c1,994$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes5c1,900$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.91931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b9…198cbacked Yes2c1,688$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes2c1,675$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.343414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes1c1,674$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd286…2322backed Yes1c1,662$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910d…5a46backed Yes6c1,643$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Yes1c1,631$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes4c1,538$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes7c1,532$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a99…2e19backed Yes2c1,511$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes1c1,502$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.01254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3025…a91cbacked Yes2c1,481$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa470…f6bdbacked Yes2c1,477$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc985…338bbacked Yes1c1,468$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes11c1,425$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.272213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x852c…2453backed Yes2c1,406$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+309.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd9…4674backed Yes3c1,389$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…6c2ebacked Yes1c1,359$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7361…7058backed Yes16c1,330$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes3c1,309$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.77336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-91.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc30d…57e6backed Yes2c1,293$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c1,291$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.67220%0 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc57…cf74backed Yes1c1,259$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe898…769fbacked Yes2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202520%5 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-58.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes2c1,245$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.942433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes10c1,223$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.773732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes16c1,213$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes8c1,194$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes1c1,172$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dee…53d5backed Yes2c1,156$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c1,149$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.761428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes3c1,111$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2541238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes5c1,093$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.32630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc340…0f9abacked Yes4c1,047$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.