TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0ee5…6c2e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Champions League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 56 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+37%+$55.48
Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)backed FK Bodø/Glimt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$87.84
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.96
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+204.9%+$606.63
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+125.8%+$124.51
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)backed AS Monaco FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+56.3%+$21.38
Will Monaco advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Bodø/Glimt advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+109.3%+$21.87
Will Atlético Madrid advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+143.9%+$28.78
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+284.6%+$56.92
All 18 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-43.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.16
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.14
Will Strasbourg reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+206.6%+$26.86
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$56.79
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.06
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.02
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.68
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$110.99
Will KRC Genk win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will FC Lausanne-Sport vs. SK Sigma Olomouc end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will FC Lausanne-Sport win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$67
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+132.6%+$66.28
Will AS Omónoia Leukosías win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.65
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$98
All 14 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Ligalast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$14.73
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$13
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dundee United FC win on 2026-02-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+50.7%+$10.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$59
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.