TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Real Madrid CFof Manchester City FC, Real Madrid CF
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,361 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb7b3…9573backed Real Madrid CF74c10,000$7,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6506428.1%18 W · 46 L-8.7wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City FC26c9,670$2,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,531.011,99443.9%875 W · 1,119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Manchester City FC27c7,782$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,068.4229746.5%138 W · 159 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Manchester City FC26c4,917$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.1826047.7%124 W · 136 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Real Madrid CF74c4,053$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.791741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Manchester City FC27c2,811$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.3920947.8%100 W · 109 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Manchester City FC26c2,553$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.015424.1%13 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Real Madrid CF74c2,020$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.423959%23 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Real Madrid CF75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Real Madrid CF74c1,411$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.421369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc7…d626backed Real Madrid CF73c1,364$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…cbefbacked Real Madrid CF74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.351560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e3f…8e8dbacked Real Madrid CF75c1,339$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.23655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Manchester City FC28c1,128$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4315038.7%58 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Manchester City FC25c1,123$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.4760748.4%294 W · 313 L-1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Manchester City FC26c1,042$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.6650247.2%237 W · 265 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Real Madrid CF77c1,038$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.4223637.3%88 W · 148 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Manchester City FC24c944.29$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.6324047.1%113 W · 127 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Real Madrid CF73c880.01$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.3113245.5%60 W · 72 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xada4…c344backed Real Madrid CF74c834.65$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.011637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f9…f701backed Real Madrid CF76c726.51$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f5…0688backed Manchester City FC26c691.97$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.594141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Manchester City FC29c690.34$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013234.1%45 W · 87 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked Real Madrid CF72c666.45$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.6110849.1%53 W · 55 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Manchester City FC26c586.26$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9240350.9%205 W · 198 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Manchester City FC28c522.24$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2312935.7%46 W · 83 L-12.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe11a…53ebbacked Manchester City FC29c517.76$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1492181%17 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2718…780bbacked Manchester City FC27c460.74$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Real Madrid CF74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.413540%14 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-38.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Manchester City FC28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11225659.8%153 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8bb…1c4bbacked Real Madrid CF73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x701b…0298backed Real Madrid CF75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Real Madrid CF75c382.5$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.913261.4%81 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9252…6069backed Real Madrid CF75c374.45$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.61366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…6c2ebacked Real Madrid CF74c337.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.841850%9 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0275…596dbacked Real Madrid CF75c333.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.334757.4%27 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Real Madrid CF73c330.07$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.121050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5006…fbcdbacked Real Madrid CF74c324.46$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.46933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester City FC24c301.8$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4315032.7%49 W · 101 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Real Madrid CF72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8438253.9%206 W · 176 L+21.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Manchester City FC28c299.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-46.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b7b…9ab9backed Real Madrid CF73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.973754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked Real Madrid CF74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.274165.9%27 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5dc4…99adbacked Real Madrid CF76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.161625%4 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Manchester City FC25c254.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7565050.2%326 W · 324 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Real Madrid CF74c232.43$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec97…1cfabacked Manchester City FC30c201.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b49…1676backed Real Madrid CF70c201.25$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Manchester City FC28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbce…507dbacked Real Madrid CF74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4619…2108backed Real Madrid CF74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0843…97f5backed Real Madrid CF74c194.73$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.732665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Manchester City FC28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503636.1%13 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Real Madrid CF71c158$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8220644.7%92 W · 114 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Manchester City FC27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8429350.5%148 W · 145 L+13.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5228…0923backed Real Madrid CF75c147.49$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Real Madrid CF75c144$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3615966.7%106 W · 53 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb226…e227backed Real Madrid CF72c139$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.923743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed Real Madrid CF73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d9…9397backed Real Madrid CF75c136$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ae…4440backed Real Madrid CF74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ca…1d63backed Real Madrid CF76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Manchester City FC23c130.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305541.8%23 W · 32 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester City FC23c130.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0742438%161 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Real Madrid CF72c123.08$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.465362.3%33 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+35.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Manchester City FC27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Manchester City FC27c106.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.725738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x166f…b68dbacked Real Madrid CF73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick67cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Manchester City FC28c98.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.382437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b57…71d6backed Manchester City FC27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Manchester City FC22c90$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.829034.5%100 W · 190 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e15…8ea4backed Real Madrid CF73c87.67$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.671250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda1c…197dbacked Manchester City FC29c86.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+257.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Manchester City FC27c82.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224447.7%21 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd71…6714backed Real Madrid CF74c81.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.082277.3%17 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd09a…e290backed Real Madrid CF74c81.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.088100%8 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+86.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f37…8907backed Real Madrid CF75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d03…32c1backed Real Madrid CF75c78.39$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.63100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Manchester City FC27c74.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6914220.4%29 W · 113 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf479…0fe3backed Real Madrid CF73c72.42$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.424751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Real Madrid CF72c70.93$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8613453%71 W · 63 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Real Madrid CF73c63.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.015253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Real Madrid CF75c61.6$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.41844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Manchester City FC27c60.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520643.2%89 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf594…bfc1backed Manchester City FC28c60.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.893545.7%16 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Manchester City FC28c60.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.815847.5%75 W · 83 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe36e…ad3abacked Manchester City FC27c56.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+99.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba1f…a150backed Manchester City FC27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed Real Madrid CF74c54.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Real Madrid CF74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed Real Madrid CF72c49.78$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.75875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Manchester City FC26c49.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.029948.5%48 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Manchester City FC27c49.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4611650%58 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fce…6732backed Real Madrid CF74c41.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Manchester City FC27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89044.4%40 W · 50 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Real Madrid CF74c39.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.23941%16 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e32…fdbdbacked Real Madrid CF79c38.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9681…9199backed Real Madrid CF74c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick67cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e87…20cabacked Real Madrid CF78c32.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.19650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96cc…f91abacked Real Madrid CF74c30.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.