Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb9ccc21dd0d587e1a9d433ba5f657ee250fa53ac3902aab868410e78e89fff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester City FCof Real Madrid CF, Manchester City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City FC | 75c | 20,983$15,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,184.41 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Real Madrid CF | 43c | 17,399$7,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,505.55 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Real Madrid CF | 7c | 8,872$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.24 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Manchester City FC | 58c | 6,570$3,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,766.55 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Real Madrid CF | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…5660backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 2,558$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 2,141$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Real Madrid CF | 45c | 1,830$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.6 | 591 | 36.5%216 W · 375 L | -30.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Real Madrid CF | 10c | 1,782$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.37 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Manchester City FC | 71c | 1,424$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.59 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…239cbacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac9…92d3backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 1,218$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…8194backed Real Madrid CF | 16c | 1,218$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…09fcbacked Real Madrid CF | 12c | 837.06$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Real Madrid CF | 17c | 665.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 660.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Real Madrid CF | 46c | 653.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…71d6backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5865…c34ebacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Real Madrid CF | 7c | 524.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Real Madrid CF | 7c | 471.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5e…805abacked Real Madrid CF | 22c | 372.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Manchester City FC | 61c | 359.31$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.82 | 394 | 43.1%170 W · 224 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Real Madrid CF | 14c | 329$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Real Madrid CF | 5c | 325.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b98…7f1dbacked Real Madrid CF | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Real Madrid CF | 43c | 285$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda1c…197dbacked Real Madrid CF | 7c | 279.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed Real Madrid CF | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…c2aebacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Manchester City FC | 58c | 249.58$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 129 | 35.7%46 W · 83 L | -12.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Real Madrid CF | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e1…b2eebacked Real Madrid CF | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Real Madrid CF | 6c | 204.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Real Madrid CF | 5c | 202$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…d9d8backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Real Madrid CF | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…c9ddbacked Real Madrid CF | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…1bdfbacked Real Madrid CF | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…a022backed Real Madrid CF | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…0687backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 145.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfb…15c1backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 136.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Real Madrid CF | 16c | 127.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Real Madrid CF | 44c | 112.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed Real Madrid CF | 46c | 102.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Real Madrid CF | 19c | 99.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Real Madrid CF | 43c | 98.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Real Madrid CF | 44c | 80.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Manchester City FC | 72c | 72.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Manchester City FC | 79c | 68.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Manchester City FC | 62c | 67.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Real Madrid CF | 30c | 56.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Real Madrid CF | 31c | 48.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…b015backed Real Madrid CF | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…ecc5backed Real Madrid CF | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a50…6c6bbacked Real Madrid CF | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Manchester City FC | 79c | 33.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Manchester City FC | 68c | 24.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…013fbacked Manchester City FC | 67c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.