Champions League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142424635c0e415bdf9e7501095d5ba5ea254eb7716b34ef71bd2bb6e09b360b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,276 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 13c | 23,627$3,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,055.52 | 266 | 45.9%122 W · 144 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…505fbacked Under | 15c | 10,777$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 10,564$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.59 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 12c | 7,123$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.63 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 11c | 2,709$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.41 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 7c | 1,247$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 12c | 1,144$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 11c | 812.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Under | 9c | 769.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…b1e0backed Over | 79c | 718.24$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 14c | 650.09$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 14c | 614.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 14c | 496.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 129 | 35.7%46 W · 83 L | -12.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 14c | 393.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 14c | 377.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Under | 15c | 320$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Under | 13c | 259.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 7c | 221.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37e…17cfbacked Under | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…9694backed Under | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Under | 14c | 150.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed Under | 14c | 106.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 13c | 106.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Over | 78c | 91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Over | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Under | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 21c | 65.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Over | 78c | 20.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.