TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2718…780b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$583.13
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+800.9%+$1,358.01
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$232
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$956Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$956.44
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$469Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$469
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.98
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$460.88
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$381.5
Spread: Germany (-1.5)backed Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$275.33
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$471.92
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$78.54
Will Niger win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.92
Will Serbia win on 2026-03-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+47%+$78.87
Spread: Germany (-2.5)backed Ghana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.97
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.7
Will Lithuania win on 2026-03-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.1
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$285.37
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$49.14
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.76
Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-03-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+53.5%+$40.02
Will Benin win on 2026-03-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$146.19
Will Morocco vs. Ecuador end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$24.08
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.77
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$281.11
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT2030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$469Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$263.88
Mauthausen: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Choinskibacked Joel Schwaerzler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.02
Bucharest Open: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsanbacked Stefanos Sakellaridis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.33
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Camilo Ugo Carabellibacked Ignacio Buse · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.37
Sao Leopoldo: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Facundo Acostabacked Juan Pablo Varillas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.46
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machacbacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$73
Menorca: Yaroslav Demin vs Jonas Forejtekbacked Yaroslav Demin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.65
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Putintsevabacked Jessica Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$26.35
Credit One Charleston Open: Anna Bondar vs Magdalena Frechbacked Magdalena Frech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.83
Copa Colsanitas: Despina Papamichail vs Darja Semenistajabacked Despina Papamichail · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.75
Credit One Charleston Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Belinda Bencicbacked Dayana Yastremska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.18
Grand Prix Hassan II: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Kamil Majchrzakbacked Kamil Majchrzak · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$72.9
Credit One Charleston Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Donna Vekicbacked Ajla Tomljanovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.22
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Zhizhen Zhangbacked Jack Pinnington Jones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.94
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaerbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.76
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Darja Vidmanova vs Katarina Jokicbacked Katarina Jokic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Split: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Tom Gentzschbacked Tom Gentzsch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$27.74
Morelia: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Luka Pavlovicbacked Juan Pablo Ficovich · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$125.7
Split: Tom Gentzsch vs Filippo Romanobacked Filippo Romano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.46
Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Alex Michelsen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.77
All 20 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-64%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.46
Islanders vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$43.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.34
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.21
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$160.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.