Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9759149a009b890f2bdf7be549af980ba3965f224da1720fbcd56e118cc05a5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,736 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked VP.Prodigy | 66c | 2,211$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.63 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked VP.Prodigy | 66c | 2,077$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.25 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Shpilit | 33c | 1,750$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.49 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 1,736$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…9bf5backed Team Shpilit | 16c | 1,704$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Shpilit | 35c | 1,045$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.47 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Team Shpilit | 27c | 900$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.12 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Shpilit | 14c | 813.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 75c | 724.29$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.58 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Team Shpilit | 33c | 664.33$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.53 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked VP.Prodigy | 80c | 492.31$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.46 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Team Shpilit | 37c | 472.97$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Shpilit | 33c | 373.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed VP.Prodigy | 77c | 309.82$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2718…780bbacked Team Shpilit | 13c | 306.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 246.16$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 221$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Team Shpilit | 34c | 205.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Shpilit | 25c | 176.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Shpilit | 35c | 174.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 155.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 149.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 149.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 148$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Team Shpilit | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 145.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 124.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked VP.Prodigy | 71c | 118.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Team Shpilit | 32c | 97.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…65c5backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 95.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked VP.Prodigy | 66c | 80.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…477ebacked Team Shpilit | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Shpilit | 28c | 64.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked VP.Prodigy | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 61.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Team Shpilit | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Team Shpilit | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc093…de0ebacked Team Shpilit | 34c | 53.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked VP.Prodigy | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Team Shpilit | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked VP.Prodigy | 75c | 47.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked VP.Prodigy | 70c | 46.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Team Shpilit | 33c | 45.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 43.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Team Shpilit | 35c | 43.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked Team Shpilit | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 147 | 62.6%92 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…de92backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 37.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked VP.Prodigy | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…5491backed Team Shpilit | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…3533backed VP.Prodigy | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e7…1e4dbacked VP.Prodigy | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…9f8dbacked VP.Prodigy | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed VP.Prodigy | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked VP.Prodigy | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked VP.Prodigy | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…5c97backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked VP.Prodigy | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked VP.Prodigy | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Athis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.