TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik Sinner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jannik Sinnerof Alex Michelsen, Jannik Sinner
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$527,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $527,708 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44a1…bd21backed Alex Michelsen5c42,367$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,093.5223731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9367…f6bebacked Alex Michelsen5c32,534$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.264623.9%11 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Alex Michelsen9c30,935$2,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.16331.7%20 W · 43 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed Alex Michelsen5c23,420$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.82927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+182.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92a…99acbacked Alex Michelsen7c18,879$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.954930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Alex Michelsen5c17,372$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.281,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Alex Michelsen5c16,382$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.121,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe166…8f14backed Alex Michelsen4c13,299$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Alex Michelsen5c12,476$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.7474743.6%326 W · 421 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Alex Michelsen5c11,444$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.223750.6%120 W · 117 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Alex Michelsen5c10,409$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.272,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Alex Michelsen6c10,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5508031.3%25 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Alex Michelsen6c10,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Alex Michelsen5c10,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55024840.7%101 W · 147 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b4…19acbacked Alex Michelsen5c9,966$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.818229.3%24 W · 58 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3c…2f57backed Alex Michelsen17c9,412$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60030740.7%125 W · 182 L-23.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb49…8932backed Alex Michelsen8c8,758$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02d8…0c91backed Alex Michelsen3c8,438$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.364348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Alex Michelsen4c6,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24019835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8374…4015backed Alex Michelsen11c5,646$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6007346.6%34 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Alex Michelsen7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35031234.6%108 W · 204 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Alex Michelsen8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007850%39 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e1…ecdbbacked Alex Michelsen7c4,743$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.4248935.8%175 W · 314 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Alex Michelsen6c4,555$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9123847.1%112 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Alex Michelsen5c3,700$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18528828.5%82 W · 206 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Alex Michelsen5c3,008$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.422,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Alex Michelsen12c3,000$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36315447.4%73 W · 81 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Alex Michelsen7c2,850$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.561924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db1…d726backed Alex Michelsen3c2,753$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1311832.2%38 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bcc…84c1backed Alex Michelsen6c2,667$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010341.7%43 W · 60 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9712…0c47backed Alex Michelsen7c2,584$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.318344.6%37 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Alex Michelsen7c2,420$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.9666139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Alex Michelsen4c2,265$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859737.9%77 W · 896 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Alex Michelsen5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10058232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Alex Michelsen5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Alex Michelsen6c1,755$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042743.8%187 W · 240 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x829e…2c6dbacked Alex Michelsen6c1,725$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Alex Michelsen16c1,722$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.4342839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Alex Michelsen5c1,660$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4422033.6%74 W · 146 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa10e…4ea1backed Alex Michelsen6c1,551$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2755…fef0backed Alex Michelsen4c1,501$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022634.5%78 W · 148 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Alex Michelsen11c1,498$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2628724.4%70 W · 217 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Alex Michelsen6c1,433$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011426.3%30 W · 84 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34f6…eab4backed Alex Michelsen9c1,400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.732634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Alex Michelsen7c1,369$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Alex Michelsen4c1,316$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012722%28 W · 99 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Alex Michelsen10c1,303$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2681933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Alex Michelsen5c1,201$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5567836%244 W · 434 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab0…b46abacked Alex Michelsen9c1,133$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023735%83 W · 154 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Alex Michelsen4c1,034$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.923713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd63…a39abacked Alex Michelsen7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7019637.2%73 W · 123 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Alex Michelsen10c999.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201f…a96bbacked Alex Michelsen12c933.58$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.483661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Alex Michelsen9c900$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8270652.7%372 W · 334 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Alex Michelsen10c895.44$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.961,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e8…b293backed Alex Michelsen6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020337.9%77 W · 126 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Alex Michelsen6c812$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.721,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c45…cf06backed Alex Michelsen7c708.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Alex Michelsen6c700$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.84599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2dc…f9d3backed Alex Michelsen3c675.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.087852.6%41 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc679…e427backed Alex Michelsen6c650$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb315…d6c9backed Alex Michelsen8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015324.8%38 W · 115 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x444a…00bebacked Alex Michelsen5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308831.8%28 W · 60 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Alex Michelsen6c599.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4575.3%3 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Alex Michelsen7c599.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.390335.8%323 W · 580 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Alex Michelsen4c543.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027346.5%127 W · 146 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Alex Michelsen6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed Alex Michelsen5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515724.8%39 W · 118 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee4c…8572backed Alex Michelsen20c499.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4823429.1%68 W · 166 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Alex Michelsen14c491$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9734744.4%154 W · 193 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Alex Michelsen7c460$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.244229.6%131 W · 311 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Alex Michelsen4c444.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89934.3%4 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Alex Michelsen16c411.72$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1172542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0b…d6c6backed Alex Michelsen6c402.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.861450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Alex Michelsen5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204632.6%15 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bbd…1ec9backed Alex Michelsen8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Alex Michelsen5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206734.3%23 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd126…b4a7backed Alex Michelsen5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202536%9 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…84e4backed Alex Michelsen4c397.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14387.9%3 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Alex Michelsen5c390.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033326.4%88 W · 245 L-14.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Alex Michelsen11c375$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4699044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Alex Michelsen7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540264.4%259 W · 143 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Alex Michelsen11c350$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.241,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Alex Michelsen9c338.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1960943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Alex Michelsen11c310$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7235944.8%161 W · 198 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Alex Michelsen7c307.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.049761.9%60 W · 37 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9483…804ebacked Alex Michelsen7c305.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015514.2%22 W · 133 L-27.4wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-70.4%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Alex Michelsen18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.42429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd6…7275backed Alex Michelsen7c288.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942d…6c4ebacked Alex Michelsen7c286.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Alex Michelsen11c285.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0454634.4%188 W · 358 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2718…780bbacked Alex Michelsen17c275.21$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.772030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Alex Michelsen9c268.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9524438.9%95 W · 149 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Alex Michelsen5c263.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.451,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Alex Michelsen6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1566831.3%209 W · 459 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Alex Michelsen5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52516%4 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked Alex Michelsen6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157330.1%22 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea87…1ad7backed Alex Michelsen7c243$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6827040%108 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Alex Michelsen7c237.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4113…d7a8backed Alex Michelsen7c237.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.735131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.