Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b8e7ff806569ffba879e373abba97ee93a79af89d6d736fd3081edc05ae8e7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,232 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Sinner | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,400 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michelsen | 80c | 7,364$5,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,865.23 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Michelsen | 28c | 3,500$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.35 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Michelsen | 22c | 1,250$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Michelsen | 21c | 825.68$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Sinner | 78c | 816.29$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 79 | 81%64 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed Sinner | 24c | 700$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…ebe6backed Sinner | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Sinner | 69c | 540.32$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Sinner | 79c | 470.15$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Michelsen | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Sinner | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Sinner | 75c | 372.61$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…db18backed Michelsen | 54c | 370.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Michelsen | 21c | 319.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Sinner | 74c | 308.85$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sinner | 53c | 286.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Sinner | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Michelsen | 53c | 170.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Michelsen | 59c | 169.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e81…8427backed Sinner | 72c | 162.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sinner | 79c | 158.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Michelsen | 39c | 153.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 354 | 36.4%129 W · 225 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…1ec9backed Michelsen | 27c | 141.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Sinner | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Sinner | 50c | 129.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Michelsen | 56c | 127.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Sinner | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…72c7backed Sinner | 79c | 125.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Michelsen | 24c | 118.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x978f…e14dbacked Michelsen | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -26.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…205cbacked Sinner | 17c | 110.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Sinner | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Sinner | 75c | 97.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Michelsen | 23c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Michelsen | 34c | 76.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Sinner | 76c | 76.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Sinner | 71c | 70.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Michelsen | 18c | 67.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Sinner | 44c | 60.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Michelsen | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Michelsen | 39c | 51.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Michelsen | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Sinner | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Sinner | 78c | 43.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Michelsen | 80c | 40.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 701 | 48.2%338 W · 363 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Sinner | 70c | 34.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Michelsen | 31c | 32.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Sinner | 73c | 30.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…dd4bbacked Sinner | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…c13bbacked Sinner | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33f…159cbacked Sinner | 77c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)this page
- Alex Michelsen vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Michelsen vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Michelsen vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Michelsen vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Michelsen vs SinnerSinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.