Tennis · resolved market
Alex Michelsen vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdff3b30604c5b705ced6b7411245ecb7334980d7927adc8c571f2f66c667944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,068 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over 2.5 | 16c | 1,057$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over 2.5 | 16c | 777$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Over 2.5 | 23c | 499.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 72c | 481.22$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.37 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over 2.5 | 22c | 373.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over 2.5 | 13c | 296.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Over 2.5 | 28c | 289.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 645 | 37.2%240 W · 405 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…ebe6backed Under 2.5 | 77c | 267.21$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under 2.5 | 77c | 157.32$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over 2.5 | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc834…685fbacked Under 2.5 | 62c | 80.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b43…0f61backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Under 2.5 | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 68.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…c21dbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 63.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2926…1591backed Under 2.5 | 78c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 24.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…d51cbacked Under 2.5 | 80c | 20.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Under 2.5 | 78c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under 2.5 | 77c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 701 | 48.2%338 W · 363 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…1ec9backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alex Michelsen vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Michelsen vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Michelsen vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Michelsen vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Michelsen vs SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.