TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,471,175
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,136,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,471,175 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,882 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes7c307,015$21,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,202.9610930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes10c183,354$19,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,104.3811734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes7c117,439$8,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,768.6132023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec7…35c0backed No76c104,353$79,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,070.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c102,566$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,476.19948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5007…eddabacked Yes15c100,927$14,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,906.611421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes7c95,473$7,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,117.651306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes8c94,102$7,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,172170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes4c89,345$3,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,425.6611921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes12c81,096$9,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,900.99130%0 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c78,643$12,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,018.3830718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b44…b75bbacked Yes16c78,264$12,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,135.52944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd4…43bebacked Yes31c73,455$22,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,58720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e7…10bbbacked Yes2c63,562$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac4…9757backed Yes2c60,591$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed No69c60,000$41,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,500560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eec…c999backed Yes8c49,619$4,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,030.242142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecf…c870backed Yes13c45,577$6,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,115.1580%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd16…649cbacked Yes2c45,530$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.08110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30dd…cbfdbacked Yes6c44,372$2,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,652.8970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes4c43,408$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.97170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6c…64b4backed Yes22c41,778$9,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,331.892416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes5c41,227$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.291884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c1…67eebacked Yes9c40,971$3,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,731.3250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x219d…145bbacked Yes2c38,585$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.86150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…9b5cbacked Yes3c38,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22c6…50c6backed Yes8c37,239$2,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,903.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c57…af7cbacked Yes1c35,609$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes10c35,184$3,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,583.254610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3131…b77bbacked Yes3c33,878$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ce…7c5abacked Yes13c33,220$4,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,449.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick44cpaid-70.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes11c30,142$3,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,411.523315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes23c28,562$6,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5891717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-76.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes6c28,329$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.577011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes9c28,267$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.51333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefb3…02bfbacked No65c28,032$18,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,840.411464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c88…22ddbacked Yes4c27,178$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.3150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5abd…b58fbacked Yes5c26,106$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.25128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e45…5b3fbacked Yes4c25,484$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74db…4ca5backed Yes22c25,408$5,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,622.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c25,263$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.692324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cc0…da93backed Yes13c24,341$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Yes6c24,262$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662b…8a95backed No65c23,687$15,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,218.17785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+45.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x616d…bf7dbacked Yes9c23,456$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b8…eb69backed Yes13c23,242$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes6c22,658$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.583619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33dc…bb81backed Yes16c21,417$3,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,448.621833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…6c82backed Yes5c21,408$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes11c20,890$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.341010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes0c20,228$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.23450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe946…4cc4backed Yes22c19,002$4,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,257.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61f…a873backed Yes13c18,655$2,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a00…c461backed Yes14c18,616$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes6c18,458$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.344112.2%5 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x063b…7328backed Yes14c18,365$2,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c9…131cbacked Yes11c17,497$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-80.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaadc…4925backed Yes6c17,386$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f5…db45backed Yes1c17,222$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7905…a886backed Yes17c17,101$2,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.14128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c17,031$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.941212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e1…5968backed Yes6c16,934$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+87.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8489…c184backed No78c16,932$13,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,804.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b7…50c3backed Yes10c16,795$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes1c16,645$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.6715020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c6…6daabacked Yes1c16,435$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.09128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9277…fd29backed Yes18c16,397$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,965.4119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf600…5015backed Yes8c16,024$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes10c15,600$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.282544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes7c15,545$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.643417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56ba…96abbacked Yes6c15,403$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.821816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes14c15,199$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.742832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3132…cae8backed Yes7c15,080$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…87cbbacked Yes13c15,035$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c15…2caebacked Yes6c15,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…2f5fbacked Yes10c14,889$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c14,852$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.18912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd4…69aabacked Yes13c14,186$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,801.5370%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf825…cbc8backed Yes11c13,996$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes13c13,698$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.422532%8 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+197.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c9…67c6backed Yes11c13,471$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.42922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a9…4d64backed Yes9c13,349$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.49425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No78c13,312$10,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.841080%8 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c44…fcd4backed No77c13,235$10,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,979.5988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick49cpaid+163.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes10c12,967$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3762…b66dbacked Yes6c12,901$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.170%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2a…a95fbacked Yes0c12,854$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes11c12,746$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.446521.5%14 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes10c12,616$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.261118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c12,597$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.98590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a26…1384backed Yes13c12,545$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ba6…3567backed Yes14c11,818$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…7751backed Yes1c11,784$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No73c11,776$8,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,151.929745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94bb…1d45backed Yes17c11,689$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5770…43b8backed Yes1c11,645$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes14c11,539$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.417847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…9eb1backed Yes14c11,506$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.081040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xab23…e48dbacked Yes1c11,360$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes10c11,250$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.785915.3%9 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.