TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,031,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,828,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,031,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 461 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x401f…4afbbacked No0c205,000$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf963…340dbacked No1c167,749$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…f63fbacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f5…a4d8backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No0c96,487$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.495149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed No0c78,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-42.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6103…f2d9backed No0c63,009$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8979…cec5backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x385a…994fbacked No0c49,980$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked No9c43,140$3,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,758.8710930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca72…30cdbacked No1c36,768$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No1c31,945$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.47727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…2c93backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc9…5b7dbacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad8…1580backed No0c21,673$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No14c19,867$2,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,783.623154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes68c18,084$12,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,828.86233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No15c16,995$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.21170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xae02…6d55backed No1c16,350$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.74234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed No5c14,210$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.047930.4%24 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19cb…a867backed No0c13,090$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8e…e800backed No0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes50c12,802$6,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,367.52832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb420…3d77backed No0c12,700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ea…a212backed No0c11,860$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38c…7aa6backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea0…2e62backed No1c10,436$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No7c10,297$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.762910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0b4…15f3backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb043…20b6backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bcf…290bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cf…61d5backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9cd…d87bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…c01ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb095…8cd5backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1536…d499backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c9,850$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5911.1%1 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed No1c9,770$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.571040%4 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+59.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa241…45f7backed No53c9,405$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e31…a06fbacked No19c7,807$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d3…3dd5backed No16c7,200$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.1955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick27cpaid+67%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x242e…2383backed Yes78c6,392$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff8…25b1backed No0c5,367$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No43c5,228$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.154542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No22c4,909$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.815020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No7c4,893$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.467711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9466…a745backed No29c4,579$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.521546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb416…c7a1backed Yes74c4,568$3,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.431338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No12c4,404$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.467525.3%19 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked No42c4,383$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.861573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick49cpaid+56.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdef6…f63abacked No35c4,284$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.62850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2811…838abacked No2c4,170$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked No11c4,091$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.693013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked No17c4,037$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.97397.7%3 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-80.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No24c3,565$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.134831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed No6c3,525$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.661884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cb…867fbacked No13c3,361$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b62…5203backed No30c3,108$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.292552%13 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59d7…e13cbacked Yes68c3,099$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.652060%12 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7704440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked No18c2,803$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x097a…7041backed No38c2,617$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…c0a4backed No14c2,614$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.074723.4%11 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked No8c2,513$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b1…8962backed No22c2,449$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fcb…a10dbacked No42c2,380$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed No4c2,372$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3313949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc486…7b49backed No43c2,319$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0004…80c7backed Yes80c2,294$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.56450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No3c2,222$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.919235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x347a…03a4backed Yes45c2,199$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+163.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No5c2,095$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.051850%9 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3355…a126backed No53c2,078$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed No19c2,019$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.635354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes50c2,013$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0136325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b38…0356backed No15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…e2b8backed Yes60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No3c1,917$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.851637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc391…cefbbacked Yes43c1,871$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed No30c1,831$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.022218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-64.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No4c1,751$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8816516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2f4…c328backed No1c1,739$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No21c1,733$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.154610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefcc…4883backed No9c1,700$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15370%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes55c1,628$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.773528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No14c1,467$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.124126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca1…3d96backed No55c1,420$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.2650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No5c1,400$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed No12c1,328$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.193033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf018…f0b4backed No20c1,263$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed No34c1,249$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.222050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf23c…5dbdbacked No1c1,248$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-81.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed No7c1,246$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3229264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c1,208$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.642221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa661…af49backed No18c1,201$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes73c1,200$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-54.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97b7…146ebacked No5c1,200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8bf…f6a5backed No1c1,126$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No16c1,056$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7232023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41b…986cbacked Yes65c1,003$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.