TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,841,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,567,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,841,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 871 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes22c127,180$28,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,052.9910930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes1c99,872$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.232330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes2c79,263$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.299317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d7…008dbacked Yes10c76,873$7,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,680.951612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-73.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No78c29,842$23,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,481.62977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes25c28,337$6,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,958.172133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked No78c24,997$19,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,537.77875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe071…ff3ebacked No67c24,762$16,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,200.82540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes19c23,955$4,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,439.225151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes16c21,204$3,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,389.01948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf215…f719backed Yes0c20,819$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.772025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbed…804ebacked Yes8c20,113$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.841414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-70.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c19,515$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.511315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-57.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…5aafbacked Yes24c18,878$4,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,552.791546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes17c15,695$2,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.96397.7%3 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-80.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes19c15,446$2,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,918.61170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8fa…5580backed Yes15c14,471$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1501040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked Yes24c13,056$3,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,117.553666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cca…50e9backed Yes11c12,926$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes30c12,910$3,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,825.9630238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0638…74a1backed Yes27c12,720$3,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,396.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes8c12,219$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.21315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked No74c12,088$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.111513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-80.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6275…1622backed No75c11,918$8,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a4…faafbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f1…83dcbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes21c9,700$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0331631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes7c9,232$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.6825%2 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+373.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No79c9,162$7,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.3514849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf5…b17fbacked Yes9c9,081$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.723342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes18c8,845$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.7315446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes13c8,436$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.083417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No61c8,155$4,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,217.793070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes2c8,104$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-67.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes15c8,093$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.174610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9db6…2824backed Yes27c8,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972f…f90ebacked Yes9c6,980$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes12c6,929$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.977011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e8d…b0e1backed Yes38c6,794$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe698…e111backed Yes8c6,532$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed No74c6,409$4,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.691435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes9c6,301$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.5915020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed No75c6,136$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.112748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes20c6,028$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.7290%0 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes18c6,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1106325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No78c6,000$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.99650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf57e…5a1bbacked Yes20c5,829$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes2c5,793$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100180%0 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No37c5,460$2,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,413.61323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes31c5,438$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.5113538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa092…11e3backed No78c5,300$4,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1442176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+81.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes15c5,214$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.797723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes17c5,199$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.917727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…a537backed Yes20c5,153$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0753…c6aabacked Yes18c5,093$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9082334.8%8 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+61.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked No55c5,035$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.25966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d37…94c8backed Yes13c5,000$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2899…3f61backed Yes20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Yes11c4,889$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.686651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed86…6ee1backed Yes23c4,686$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.71825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No57c4,654$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.747335.6%26 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae2…426fbacked Yes0c4,630$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab5b…316cbacked Yes25c4,370$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes6c4,328$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.691884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes34c4,300$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.055560%33 W · 22 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes12c4,248$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…82d9backed No48c4,190$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked Yes23c4,109$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.141546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No41c4,096$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,412.251770.6%12 W · 5 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+155.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x9c62…cd27backed Yes3c4,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes6c3,777$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.42912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes5c3,772$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.57711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ce…83a4backed Yes62c3,700$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2791060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b53…2f29backed Yes21c3,465$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed Yes25c3,417$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.41650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+71.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes32c3,361$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.5910739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes57c3,300$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.563268.8%22 W · 10 L+7.5wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+68.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes35c3,281$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3557…655cbacked Yes16c3,188$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0780…01bcbacked Yes29c3,143$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.572828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes2c3,125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50488.3%4 W · 44 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-75.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa2af…d2a3backed Yes29c3,009$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes6c3,002$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.481212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes17c3,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb418…685ebacked No70c2,854$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes58c2,824$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.413644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0903…4cb0backed No71c2,817$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c2,769$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.6930718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed No72c2,753$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x455f…b56bbacked Yes26c2,660$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.0350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d42…aeaabacked Yes22c2,640$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.72933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43e0…0eebbacked Yes14c2,636$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed No36c2,615$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.224330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbcc…bb85backed No80c2,600$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-58.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0d…fbb3backed No76c2,564$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.863562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ddf…aaa1backed No78c2,564$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes33c2,546$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.951250%6 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+329.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe50c…4af1backed Yes60c2,505$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.731540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes32c2,501$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.27130%0 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5002934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.