TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,966,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,504,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,966,559 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,569 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25db…28debacked Yes7c373,589$27,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,860.569317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes5c210,434$11,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,358.3110930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…9b2ebacked No64c209,636$134,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,671.232161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes12c124,378$15,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,009.03170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf041…dde5backed Yes15c111,931$16,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,449.271338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes5c108,831$5,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,942.9811921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47a…6d60backed No53c100,173$53,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,076.268100%8 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No76c83,462$63,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,402.746651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes45c64,517$28,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,910.056233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed No34c62,194$21,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,121.331050%5 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+133.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6db…d55bbacked Yes71c60,879$42,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,932.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes24c56,910$13,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,688.764610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa80e…b94bbacked No45c54,275$24,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,050.082653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes51c51,595$26,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,137.851233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No52c45,238$23,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,742.661770.6%12 W · 5 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+155.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd1c9…131cbacked Yes42c44,108$18,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,523.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-80.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed No69c43,242$29,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,390.73100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…adb6backed No79c43,152$33,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,244.19683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick75cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes10c41,773$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,230.03948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes17c41,127$7,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,118.8632023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-57.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x662b…8a95backed No68c33,801$22,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,857.21785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+45.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes44c32,861$14,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,622.422832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefb3…02bfbacked No54c31,859$17,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,789.781464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e175backed No54c31,491$16,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,619.251580%12 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+35.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes43c31,150$13,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,335.472250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f09…76e4backed Yes20c30,854$6,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,153.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes3c30,709$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025180%0 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes26c30,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,800714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-81.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes13c29,365$3,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,788.077011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa241…45f7backed Yes56c26,794$15,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,064.113135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No77c26,395$20,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,138.022176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes41c26,230$10,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,858.011323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes2c25,556$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.052330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes50c25,300$12,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,568.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe043…faa2backed Yes19c24,091$4,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,643.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb15b…5215backed No79c23,229$18,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,992.892369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No73c22,075$16,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,988.881681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa25c…6430backed Yes10c20,431$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes30c20,315$6,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,167.311618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked No56c20,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,799.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+68.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes32c19,263$6,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,072.741520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c44…fcd4backed No79c19,216$15,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,063.67988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick49cpaid+163.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb03b…6ca1backed No55c19,098$10,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,613.711090%9 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick54cpaid+84.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes31c18,969$5,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,880.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes6c18,642$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.661884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…9b5cbacked Yes11c18,508$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No34c18,181$6,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,028.926267.7%42 W · 20 L+13.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+51.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Yes0c17,808$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5dc…54e4backed Yes20c17,703$3,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,497.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c16,595$12,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,188.7930839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b6c…64b4backed Yes14c16,462$2,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,293.092416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc690…0decbacked Yes43c16,435$7,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,026.87250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b0…fd33backed Yes62c16,094$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes8c15,658$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.787711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe661…b679backed Yes23c15,518$3,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,642.241216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda71…9351backed Yes26c15,367$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5007…eddabacked Yes32c14,336$4,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,590.91421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c13,767$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.411306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes33c13,688$4,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,462.1130%0 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes28c13,668$3,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,858.781711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x285e…f38cbacked Yes6c13,663$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.096414.1%9 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e45…5b3fbacked Yes15c13,605$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dac…7d5abacked Yes77c13,547$10,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,409.57540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1842…16eabacked Yes37c13,529$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…b75bbacked Yes46c13,128$6,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,020.32944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes43c13,060$5,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,554.131931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes36c13,043$4,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,713.582532%8 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+197.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b9…1284backed No73c12,991$9,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,495.551593.3%14 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick69cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3d18…1160backed Yes44c12,900$5,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,693.971822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-57%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7b34…294cbacked Yes49c12,877$6,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,298.75520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56ba…96abbacked Yes23c12,742$2,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,991.051816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde05…1ababacked No53c12,675$6,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,919.543100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked Yes12c12,649$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No60c12,608$7,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,077.272245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x037d…887ebacked Yes16c12,500$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fd…3144backed Yes2c12,466$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes8c12,145$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.792313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…0960backed Yes14c12,110$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-75.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe41d…577cbacked Yes49c12,051$5,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,935.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-77.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2bdf…b24bbacked Yes51c11,808$5,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,976.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x616d…bf7dbacked Yes36c11,175$4,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,047.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes38c11,043$4,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,158.7360%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes42c11,020$4,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,637.1711734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes8c10,862$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.8415020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No69c10,500$7,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,303.973562.9%22 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No77c10,152$7,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.8110100%10 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed No47c10,134$4,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,377.68988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.9wins+0.54per pick35cpaid+218.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No47c10,099$4,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,331.489745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No77c10,018$7,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,328.67933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6385…2afabacked No56c10,005$5,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,370.72771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+98.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f9…cf37backed Yes3c9,999$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes27c9,901$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673.3175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9297…7fe9backed Yes8c9,886$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb971…e7aebacked No59c9,627$5,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,915.151361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2475…eb83backed Yes40c9,588$3,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes6c9,543$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.77912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No70c9,540$6,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,841.5230238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.