TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,120,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,120,190 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f0d…99aabacked No0c94,266$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaed1…84e5backed No3c79,497$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.421258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick36cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaace…24c9backed No1c64,451$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2993…a2f8backed No4c52,316$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No8c44,499$3,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,458.7615020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No2c33,045$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.84932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c38…83d0backed No0c32,440$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4a1…e9babacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+354.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed No3c24,176$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.7140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff0…9ce3backed No3c22,097$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed No1c20,849$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.733417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x475a…3583backed No1c19,582$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x258c…9b67backed No2c18,428$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.371323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9b…2081backed No1c16,811$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No5c16,516$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.530238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ca…e0f0backed No1c15,277$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No4c12,641$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.311306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x097a…7041backed No14c12,192$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8bf…48c5backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No0c9,972$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.72738.2%6 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c9,750$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11012011.7%14 W · 106 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+178.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No2c8,591$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6711615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x753b…f06cbacked No0c7,300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c7,134$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.72221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed No4c6,894$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.411884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed No2c6,339$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5629264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x322e…bae4backed No4c6,164$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.941136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick11cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c6,043$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.241,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c5,511$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.472324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8d…37fabacked No8c5,500$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No6c5,202$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.834610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc2d…374fbacked No2c4,135$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No8c4,066$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.361323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e5f…f7c5backed No2c3,991$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No6c3,869$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.784214.3%6 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57e…5a1bbacked No18c3,637$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c3,516$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6616516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc09…9b9abacked No4c3,395$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.84270%0 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed No7c2,616$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3480%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c43…2914backed No7c2,301$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed No3c2,178$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.091212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked No13c2,002$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.993013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f78…93e8backed No15c2,000$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.4147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No6c2,000$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x332a…c9a2backed No9c1,875$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked No5c1,835$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No3c1,673$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.783122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No8c1,637$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5411838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa65…c059backed No7c1,578$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No12c1,539$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.0530718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No5c1,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751770.6%12 W · 5 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+155.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x9b90…4ebabacked No6c1,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ca…1e88backed No6c1,489$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c1…048cbacked No3c1,462$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa53…d9c2backed No13c1,374$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee95…7d7abacked No7c1,366$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x673e…5db0backed No8c1,306$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b83…008bbacked No2c1,290$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.571323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed No8c1,103$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No16c1,098$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.617150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2bb…6779backed No1c1,056$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d7…1d59backed No4c1,023$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+69.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb6a…54a2backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec09…1db9backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.364621.7%10 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9612…205abacked No11c944.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked No16c942.05$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.092015%3 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No1c919.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.111850%9 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No3c910$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b8…8665backed No2c906.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c16…4085backed No6c876.91$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1824…571abacked No2c821.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…1ea4backed No16c812.1$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No7c808.01$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6124126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde51…b01ebacked No15c800$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick39cpaid-87.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6441…0cd8backed No6c778.46$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2407…db9abacked No4c756.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No14c726.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02e6…56b6backed No15c718.3$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa003…5645backed No7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd055…d012backed No10c655.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked No5c649.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.15121.6%11 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf40d…6674backed No3c606.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No4c600$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.57525.3%19 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb1bc…e269backed No4c572.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No3c547$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81293.4%1 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6869…1528backed No3c546$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a9…c455backed No14c522.07$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.561838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8209…62b6backed No12c521.51$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.76540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1120…47bfbacked No6c520.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.352653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No12c519.62$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.53873.7%28 W · 10 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+51.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7286…559ebacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-83.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No27c500$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1344856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed No7c499.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.481315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27e5…fb20backed No9c455$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-79.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10e3…5c79backed No9c450.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No11c430.73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5426413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb873…3b11backed No6c410.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x031e…276dbacked No3c400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ed…d338backed No5c360.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.09520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid+66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb93a…251bbacked Yes78c357.16$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.16757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.