TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$678,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$747,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $678,921 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa1a…bf63backed Yes3c41,571$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes1c26,992$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.26825%2 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+373.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes3c16,970$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.3510930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b1…a8e2backed Yes3c13,918$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes6c11,250$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.012231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c10,484$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.31306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4e4…faf1backed Yes1c10,220$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c7…e19dbacked Yes1c10,130$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes6c10,040$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.6730238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes3c9,776$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.2390%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2d4…a01abacked Yes2c7,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb935…204bbacked Yes3c7,006$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.663218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7796…f67cbacked Yes4c6,831$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes3c5,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9047…c4a6backed Yes8c4,757$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes3c4,280$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.34224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff82…19c0backed Yes3c4,265$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c4,259$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.412324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes3c3,991$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.461884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes9c3,949$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.675121.6%11 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf13…ed3dbacked Yes3c3,642$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes9c3,624$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.713122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c3,545$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.241212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3707…5bc0backed Yes3c3,392$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c3,352$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.22912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes4c3,240$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.986325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes1c3,228$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0511734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ec…143cbacked Yes1c3,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7065…d9eebacked Yes4c2,800$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c1…185cbacked Yes4c2,437$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Yes1c2,424$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.281127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c2,379$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed Yes5c2,283$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.172650%13 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes3c2,237$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8132023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7803…2a7cbacked Yes7c2,122$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes4c2,000$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.217011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7163…3eebbacked Yes1c2,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes1c1,980$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.295151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes7c1,812$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.843737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes4c1,809$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.383522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd722…0564backed Yes3c1,718$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2290%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f29…08c1backed Yes3c1,682$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2411…ada7backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712c…4be0backed Yes12c1,613$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c1,612$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.92664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c1,596$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9811615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,507$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes11c1,436$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.094610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xab44…a5b9backed Yes3c1,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3670%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c1,176$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes2c1,131$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c1,100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd492…7469backed Yes4c1,074$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.381118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x672c…3176backed Yes3c1,066$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4263…7a36backed Yes2c1,064$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652a…2b93backed Yes4c1,039$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4cb…f66dbacked Yes2c1,039$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe12e…c453backed Yes4c1,023$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-86.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb123…273cbacked Yes4c1,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9792…f790backed Yes2c954.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd702…daa9backed Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes16c813.86$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0515446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes2c809.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4573…a58dbacked Yes2c700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54b…9f08backed Yes3c686.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes3c643.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.99128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-89.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9538…7b37backed Yes3c639.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae9f…763cbacked Yes3c638.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+75.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1b…fba1backed Yes3c592.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes4c543.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.213538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c529.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6326413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b8…b619backed Yes6c527.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce45…a08ebacked Yes3c517.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbe…d728backed Yes6c505.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c5…edf9backed Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-78.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201f…c10cbacked Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes17c478.36$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.357150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes3c463.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04290%0 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes5c460.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0924126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c455$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes4c441.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3921015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb89…a59dbacked Yes16c433.56$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6483…3f18backed Yes3c430.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.641338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd505…cd0ebacked Yes3c430$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b13…5882backed Yes6c426.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc09…9b9abacked Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28270%0 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b69…3173backed Yes3c398.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes4c383.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+123%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa325…4201backed Yes5c381.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes3c368.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.961225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03cd…d809backed No72c366.76$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.77850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes3c365.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.29616.7%16 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes28c359.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3780…59a7backed Yes4c348.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes5c332.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.294520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ce2…de3dbacked Yes16c321.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed No77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff64…3d67backed Yes4c299.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.