TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,595,338
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,678,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,595,338 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,979 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes79c542,343$425,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,448.446233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No33c355,036$116,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,042.1994240.2%379 W · 563 L-69.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No24c270,831$64,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,720.646651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed No13c263,841$34,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,893.891050%5 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+133.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc4a9…4d64backed No0c252,842$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.49425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a29…9b2ebacked No26c209,226$55,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,290.382161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e1…5968backed Yes27c182,667$48,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133,844.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+87.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes49c182,279$89,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,572.7910930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No19c157,996$29,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,647.27170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ff0…9ce3backed No19c153,069$28,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,551.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed No2c138,929$3,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,032.792231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6127…d746backed No72c135,701$97,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,790.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c118,528$26,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,887.130718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba3b…8d3ebacked Yes70c110,150$77,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,552.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4940…e353backed No0c105,030$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93e2…26d5backed No0c101,027$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked No19c100,000$19,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+76.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb15b…5215backed No66c98,818$64,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,750.492369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes78c91,082$70,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,471.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-81.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No17c89,015$14,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,884.631306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No29c85,237$24,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,937.231323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No28c84,872$23,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,416.951631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed No31c76,725$23,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,408.09650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+71.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No54c76,421$40,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,993.131681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No27c74,725$19,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,881.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-73.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes54c74,519$40,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,515.42832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed No18c73,810$13,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,578.073033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No16c71,247$11,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,613.3115020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed No35c68,414$23,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,651.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…5aafbacked No11c65,230$7,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,392.821546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No22c62,250$13,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,979.48948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No19c60,409$11,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,396.4932023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked No16c59,467$9,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,244.471050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+72.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeed1…d782backed Yes40c58,974$23,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,108.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+73.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6641…2aefbacked No14c56,861$7,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,881.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed No49c54,699$26,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,933.76944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43fc…93bbbacked No0c54,410$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No29c51,265$15,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,050.032339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked No21c51,255$10,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,786.13417.3%3 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-81.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2722…75e9backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e5…93dabacked No0c49,480$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa80e…b94bbacked No40c47,994$19,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,062.592653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No20c47,181$9,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,269.781770.6%12 W · 5 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+155.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x972e…4665backed No45c46,250$20,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,667.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No36c44,725$16,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,144.9311838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3355…a126backed No74c40,923$30,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,333.1120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6240…3727backed No3c40,680$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+184.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed No16c40,255$6,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,468.24360.5%26 W · 17 L+9.0wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+61.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7a7b…12d8backed No0c40,085$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.92650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3c…9001backed No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed No33c39,751$12,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,936.22520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b8…9654backed No0c39,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No12c38,419$4,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,768.612910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…d55bbacked Yes73c38,208$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,207.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c2…8c24backed No5c37,051$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No31c36,845$11,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,512.119745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fab…ea04backed Yes70c36,527$25,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,951.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25d4…8d71backed No6c36,483$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No7c35,043$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.575149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca4…f2d4backed No27c34,000$9,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,214.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes62c33,805$21,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,764.0211921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2974…9c23backed Yes80c33,433$26,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,809.991844.4%8 W · 10 L-4.9wins-0.27per pick72cpaid-40.6%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2d8b…260abacked No67c33,093$22,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,090.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No32c32,176$10,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,190.1521228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed No17c31,243$5,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,457.54988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.9wins+0.54per pick35cpaid+218.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa953…8bf7backed No27c31,069$8,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,391.322965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked No23c30,430$6,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,968.192828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb3…1356backed No31c30,385$9,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,289.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3335…309ebacked No39c30,041$11,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,610.931241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed No47c29,678$13,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,878.182524%6 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No22c29,275$6,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,309.63268.8%22 W · 10 L+7.5wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+68.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd058…c532backed Yes61c28,900$17,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,213.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee7…d07abacked No39c28,900$11,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,213.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x399c…cc31backed Yes37c28,775$10,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,223.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5fe…d475backed No10c28,690$2,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,755.84425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x539d…1e69backed Yes65c28,179$18,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,993.011040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed No6c27,576$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.691070%7 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.33per pick37cpaid+66.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No54c27,322$14,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,642.133070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x087e…51c5backed Yes30c27,212$8,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,164.35785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.49per pick37cpaid+186.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9a2f…2318backed No10c27,000$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed No27c26,688$7,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,177.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fc…1efebacked No75c26,666$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,999.520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked Yes79c26,277$20,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,572.383036.7%11 W · 19 L-6.0wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-47.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes74c24,819$18,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,379.31010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-86.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fc4…8e6fbacked No13c24,249$3,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,224.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No14c24,218$3,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,424.196041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c07…4bb5backed No18c24,047$4,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,318.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4002…e2adbacked No7c23,916$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+49.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x880d…adb6backed Yes78c23,221$18,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,202.46771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2123…27a2backed Yes80c23,184$18,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,661.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No8c22,754$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,823.287727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes67c22,553$15,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,355.413050%15 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked No58c22,534$13,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,022.611573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick49cpaid+56.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d2c…c803backed No51c22,300$11,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,471.311758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No16c22,262$3,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,669.475527.3%15 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed No3c21,959$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.3270%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed No6c21,599$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+109.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes66c21,526$14,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,256.425115.7%8 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd57e…ecf2backed No24c21,396$5,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,163.950%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ef…812cbacked No4c21,003$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.125143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.