TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,857,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,658,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,857,150 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb47a…6d60backed No58c68,999$40,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,714.758100%8 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes10c60,226$5,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,933.932023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes12c56,592$6,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,794.919317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes4c50,679$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.22948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes6c38,374$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,247.7510930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6868…9b5cbacked Yes5c37,826$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefb3…02bfbacked No71c34,142$24,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,066.891464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x063b…7328backed Yes20c29,685$5,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,992.930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes12c28,858$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498.452250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb171…39eebacked Yes2c25,800$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes18c25,687$4,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,590.146233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e45…5b3fbacked Yes8c25,085$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4343…3be2backed Yes2c24,497$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+182.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes16c22,448$3,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,552.711734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dec…6205backed Yes33c22,159$7,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,31020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf600…5015backed Yes12c20,554$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes25c20,006$5,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,019.741520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c19,291$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.141306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274a…2246backed Yes2c18,825$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.561020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-63.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c6…6daabacked Yes2c17,450$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.35128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe661…b679backed Yes24c17,042$4,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,162.211216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes3c15,897$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.287711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc0…da93backed Yes20c15,335$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,09030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda71…9351backed Yes23c14,901$3,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.111811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes12c14,671$1,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.922245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b9…5a25backed Yes2c14,500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes42c14,178$5,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,954.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-81.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes4c14,045$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.191884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x684f…d400backed Yes43c13,710$5,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,895.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes8c13,325$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.563315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a73…c046backed Yes10c13,250$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.54137.7%1 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.34per pick42cpaid-88.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8c8e…9293backed Yes4c12,450$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes24c12,449$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…e647backed Yes41c12,173$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f8…316dbacked No59c12,000$7,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,919.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+1,234.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x662b…8a95backed No59c11,337$6,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,617.39785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+45.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes11c11,086$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.63619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes12c10,761$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.774610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f42…205bbacked Yes1c10,199$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc74d…aad7backed Yes1c10,119$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d9…5ababacked Yes5c10,056$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes2c9,590$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8715020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c9,493$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.222324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ecf…c870backed Yes16c9,335$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.2280%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5007…eddabacked Yes22c9,064$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.981421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c8,880$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.334112.2%5 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No67c8,777$5,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.646267.7%42 W · 20 L+13.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+51.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c8,432$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.22912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c8,256$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,056.0430718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes13c8,065$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.574425%11 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…7751backed Yes2c7,905$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes24c7,351$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.692339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes17c7,027$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.467011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46d4…2c4ebacked Yes14c6,998$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-76.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c6,998$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.541212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed No58c6,619$3,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,780.13580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+201.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes17c6,458$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.96180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes43c6,346$2,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.83135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes5c6,338$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.292010%2 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11bd…811abacked Yes2c6,175$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes19c6,155$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.91931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb935…204bbacked Yes3c5,949$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.353218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes32c5,931$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.771717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-76.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes8c5,920$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.12821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes12c5,917$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.687538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6739…72c0backed Yes12c5,833$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd5…b329backed Yes4c5,535$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd4…0796backed Yes21c5,456$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.75100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb73…53b0backed Yes18c5,443$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c5,442$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.67812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78c3…7003backed No65c5,275$3,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes16c5,140$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.632532%8 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+197.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d9…ec6bbacked Yes1c5,100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9136…eec3backed Yes24c5,029$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46c7…47d9backed Yes13c5,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5abd…b58fbacked Yes8c4,933$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x292e…c868backed Yes43c4,890$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa241…45f7backed Yes41c4,841$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc25…63e6backed Yes15c4,837$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.521315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda5…5fbebacked Yes2c4,769$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes12c4,730$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.07137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes18c4,718$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.792123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbed…804ebacked Yes2c4,695$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.441414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-70.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes12c4,449$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.7821011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked No59c4,445$2,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff2a…396dbacked Yes24c4,292$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a2…a06dbacked Yes1c4,236$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Yes2c4,203$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa75f…433abacked Yes13c4,000$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes29c4,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.991546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes11c3,945$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.0721015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes3c3,885$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.762626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Yes1c3,818$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18dc…03a2backed Yes21c3,751$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80060%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14a7…f75abacked Yes15c3,678$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5432147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba50…9f97backed Yes14c3,571$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick20cpaid+15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b1…cffbbacked Yes5c3,519$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19270%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes22c3,500$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7752236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa50b…74b2backed Yes43c3,488$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3af2…ddfcbacked Yes10c3,488$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.