TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,031,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$996,595

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,031,059 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes14c79,383$10,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,945.110930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes7c37,752$2,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,546.76170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes6c37,556$2,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,421.855151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes8c36,584$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,881.44948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes5c17,537$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8403522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c10,946$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.9515446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c10,941$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.282324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes4c10,329$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.0811734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c9,664$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.82912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes8c9,420$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.511315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No73c8,952$6,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.353070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes6c8,767$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.973417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes12c8,700$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.8690%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked No76c8,679$6,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes5c8,292$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.521884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c7,051$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.441306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes7c6,937$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.827727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes18c6,507$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.1330238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes12c5,932$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.1890%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes12c5,838$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.41397.7%3 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-80.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes20c5,532$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.642133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked Yes12c5,374$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.913666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes6c5,203$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.84610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked Yes14c4,921$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes14c4,639$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.0390%0 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7803…c9afbacked Yes11c4,462$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes12c4,256$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.1813538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c4,124$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.081212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c4,070$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.36812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes5c4,009$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.347334.2%25 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d37…94c8backed Yes31c4,000$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.2550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes15c3,860$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefcc…4883backed Yes8c3,411$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9770%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x142d…5c3dbacked Yes7c3,249$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24350%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x413a…0008backed Yes14c3,215$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.11128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-68.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes5c3,208$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.997711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c6…6daabacked Yes6c3,136$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.37128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes13c3,100$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4166325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c2,892$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.2121015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes5c2,807$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.062850%14 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe0…4b59backed Yes18c2,800$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe172…248abacked Yes45c2,748$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.212520%5 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9301…3b67backed No64c2,700$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9651258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes22c2,633$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.3232023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…ff3ebacked No77c2,606$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.86540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4705…3988backed Yes16c2,502$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c2,449$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.9230718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a4…faafbacked Yes0c2,394$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbed…804ebacked Yes7c2,380$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.021414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-70.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed Yes5c2,146$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.232653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+63.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes8c2,106$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.662161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+67.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes3c2,000$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x455f…b56bbacked Yes8c1,932$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes4c1,919$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8413949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf57e…5a1bbacked Yes21c1,907$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x547d…ea58backed No68c1,857$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5892864.3%18 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+42.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9195…72a4backed No54c1,838$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.124100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes8c1,802$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.682910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8526…8e9bbacked Yes2c1,781$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff12…cdc4backed Yes6c1,766$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7655…1fa8backed Yes4c1,720$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.712920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes16c1,658$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.967011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes2c1,641$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.54812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-67.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes6c1,537$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.16664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes3c1,500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5911.1%1 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ce…83a4backed No57c1,497$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.631060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes21c1,480$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.7210739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes25c1,456$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.08130%0 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7563…ac05backed Yes14c1,423$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.45147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick26cpaid-88.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Yes5c1,400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.95425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes4c1,369$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.14835.4%17 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+56.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x425a…5db5backed Yes7c1,353$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4397…5a14backed Yes46c1,257$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.9560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes8c1,204$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes12c1,191$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.383737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes6c1,122$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1621228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes4c1,100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.913161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+9.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes16c1,087$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.861010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-84.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed Yes10c1,071$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.78850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x219d…145bbacked Yes7c1,058$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.49150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No42c1,054$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.537723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes4c1,027$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.09692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd722…0564backed Yes46c1,013$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.3690%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes2c1,013$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.225662.5%35 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes4c1,011$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.78530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd6…3df6backed Yes3c1,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-74.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c30…6759backed Yes5c1,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.91612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1865…1401backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e19…3a62backed Yes4c999.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4280%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…5aafbacked Yes29c999.91$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.491546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe194…1cecbacked Yes41c995.51$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.161216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-63.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc01e…8197backed Yes5c983.54$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes47c937$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.82839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes5c930.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.391323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1217…7cf5backed Yes36c924.26$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.511442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes39c917.99$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.543033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bc…6f77backed Yes4c916$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200e…4048backed Yes42c913.83$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc45a…1e13backed Yes15c910.66$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9d…03ccbacked Yes30c844.25$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.13147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick29cpaid-90.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.