Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x473867b4757ef6c9ee7ccd12c588ffd28b273c2239cfa64d34bf4fbd0ccb09f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,031,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $996,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,031,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes | 14c | 79,383$10,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,945.1 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 37,752$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.76 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yes | 6c | 37,556$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.85 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 8c | 36,584$2,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.44 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 5c | 17,537$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 10,946$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.95 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 10,941$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.28 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 4c | 10,329$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.08 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 9,664$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.82 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 8c | 9,420$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 73c | 8,952$6,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.35 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 6c | 8,767$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.97 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 12c | 8,700$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked No | 76c | 8,679$6,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 5c | 8,292$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.52 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 7,051$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.44 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 7c | 6,937$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.82 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 18c | 6,507$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.13 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes | 12c | 5,932$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 12c | 5,838$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.41 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 20c | 5,532$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 12c | 5,374$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.91 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 5,203$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.8 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0850…cb8cbacked Yes | 14c | 4,921$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes | 14c | 4,639$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…c9afbacked Yes | 11c | 4,462$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 12c | 4,256$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.18 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 4,124$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 4,070$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.36 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 5c | 4,009$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.34 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…94c8backed Yes | 31c | 4,000$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…46fabacked Yes | 15c | 3,860$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…4883backed Yes | 8c | 3,411$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142d…5c3dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,249$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413a…0008backed Yes | 14c | 3,215$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 5c | 3,208$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…6daabacked Yes | 6c | 3,136$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,100$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 2,892$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.21 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 5c | 2,807$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.06 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…4b59backed Yes | 18c | 2,800$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 45c | 2,748$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.21 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed No | 64c | 2,700$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 22c | 2,633$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.32 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…ff3ebacked No | 77c | 2,606$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…3988backed Yes | 16c | 2,502$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 2,449$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.92 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…faafbacked Yes | 0c | 2,394$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…804ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,380$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.02 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 5c | 2,146$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 8c | 2,106$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…b56bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,932$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 4c | 1,919$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…5a1bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,907$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed No | 68c | 1,857$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed No | 54c | 1,838$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,802$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…8e9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,781$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…cdc4backed Yes | 6c | 1,766$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 4c | 1,720$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,658$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.96 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 2c | 1,641$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 1,537$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 57c | 1,497$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,480$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.72 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e14…7c43backed Yes | 25c | 1,456$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.08 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…ac05backed Yes | 14c | 1,423$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.45 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…f818backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,369$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…5db5backed Yes | 7c | 1,353$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4397…5a14backed Yes | 46c | 1,257$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 8c | 1,204$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 12c | 1,191$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 1,122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 16c | 1,087$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…3f46backed Yes | 10c | 1,071$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219d…145bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,058$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 42c | 1,054$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.53 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,027$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…0564backed Yes | 46c | 1,013$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,013$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 1,011$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…3df6backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…6759backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1865…1401backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e19…3a62backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5aafbacked Yes | 29c | 999.91$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…1cecbacked Yes | 41c | 995.51$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc01e…8197backed Yes | 5c | 983.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 47c | 937$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.8 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 5c | 930.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1217…7cf5backed Yes | 36c | 924.26$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 39c | 917.99$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.54 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bc…6f77backed Yes | 4c | 916$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…4048backed Yes | 42c | 913.83$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1e13backed Yes | 15c | 910.66$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…03ccbacked Yes | 30c | 844.25$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.13 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.