South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ea4db12014ac2a34fa4b50ec14c0741f73401a5ee104a7d525b86058c5f5877
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 44c | 651.28$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.72 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 56c | 641.89$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.58 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 3c | 584.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 6c | 562.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 480.86$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 44c | 416.91$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Over | 45c | 212.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.01 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 56c | 161.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 17c | 155.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2718…780bbacked Over | 44c | 142.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 45c | 124.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 44c | 121.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Under | 65c | 115.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 49c | 112.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 57c | 96.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 55c | 94.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…6c65backed Over | 44c | 88.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c162backed Under | 66c | 82.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 35c | 82.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 65c | 80.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 44c | 76.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 56c | 74.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 43c | 65.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 56c | 62.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 46.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 56c | 44.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 63c | 42.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…feb2backed Over | 45c | 41.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked Under | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 63c | 30.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Under | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 61c | 21.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.