South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41ccae61e50a9c6c14de92ee7a636e42ac8d92d4fb657f54330cc6aa354255d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 15c | 6,635$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.11 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 45c | 1,034$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.15 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 12c | 1,027$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 44c | 632.66$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.37 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Over | 55c | 556.17$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.89 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 7c | 449.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 80c | 421.03$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 76c | 406.75$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 14c | 338.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 17c | 310.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked Under | 69c | 300.08$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Under | 73c | 269.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 231.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Over | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 72c | 186.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 10c | 148.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked Under | 65c | 138.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c162backed Under | 58c | 105.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 100.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 27c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Under | 55c | 47.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Under | 49c | 45.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…e87ebacked Over | 45c | 26.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…0d4abacked Under | 70c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 56c | 17.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 80c | 14.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.