TailMyPicks

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Tennis · resolved market

Sao Leopoldo: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Facundo Acosta

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Facundo Acostaof Juan Pablo Varillas, Facundo Acosta
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Juan Pablo Varillas18c3,607$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.477,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Juan Pablo Varillas18c1,822$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.9930847.7%147 W · 161 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Juan Pablo Varillas18c1,821$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.882,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9037…0386backed Juan Pablo Varillas14c1,500$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.361612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-82.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Juan Pablo Varillas13c1,297$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.898,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Facundo Acosta77c1,231$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.724,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Juan Pablo Varillas16c1,213$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8868026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Juan Pablo Varillas25c1,095$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.512,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x097c…5cdebacked Facundo Acosta67c1,017$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.678447.6%40 W · 44 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Juan Pablo Varillas21c862.92$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0511327.4%31 W · 82 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Juan Pablo Varillas22c743.15$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.118,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2718…780bbacked Juan Pablo Varillas12c645.52$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.462030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Facundo Acosta55c531.77$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.379855.9%446 W · 352 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa24f…7c58backed Juan Pablo Varillas17c527.94$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.510242.2%43 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Facundo Acosta52c521.24$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.9246553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a30…34b1backed Facundo Acosta71c508.04$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.2316961.5%104 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5792…6481backed Juan Pablo Varillas13c499.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6513222%29 W · 103 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde4a…ee6dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas11c499.87$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.994528.9%13 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Juan Pablo Varillas31c453.35$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.624,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f4…92b2backed Facundo Acosta71c452.55$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.243956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Juan Pablo Varillas47c366.52$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3484963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Juan Pablo Varillas29c353.2$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2628835.1%101 W · 187 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Juan Pablo Varillas21c325.85$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.376,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Juan Pablo Varillas44c274.55$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.850364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x806b…cccabacked Juan Pablo Varillas28c252.35$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.53246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Juan Pablo Varillas14c242.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Juan Pablo Varillas13c238.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0473549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Facundo Acosta53c224.11$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.766547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Facundo Acosta70c216.04$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.811,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Juan Pablo Varillas30c190.63$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.859,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7133…69d6backed Juan Pablo Varillas16c189.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.394637%17 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab9…213ebacked Facundo Acosta72c179$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84bd…34d0backed Juan Pablo Varillas31c149.86$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4610829.6%32 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Facundo Acosta70c147.3$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.191,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Facundo Acosta70c139.47$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2540264.4%259 W · 143 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Juan Pablo Varillas29c133.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.633,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…1e6dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas12c118.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.211952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Juan Pablo Varillas23c110.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.353,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Facundo Acosta72c102.51$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2910860.2%65 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Facundo Acosta56c97.34$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2251539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5572…f01ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas14c95.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1357953.7%311 W · 268 L+19.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x810d…6080backed Juan Pablo Varillas26c92.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.913955.4%77 W · 62 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Juan Pablo Varillas25c90.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9841658.7%244 W · 172 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Facundo Acosta71c83.41$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5311958.8%70 W · 49 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebd1…1e86backed Juan Pablo Varillas23c83.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.116923.2%16 W · 53 L-8.4wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Juan Pablo Varillas47c82.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.735166.7%34 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Facundo Acosta71c79.34$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0117656.3%99 W · 77 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Juan Pablo Varillas30c79.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7386835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Juan Pablo Varillas31c75.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4834149.9%170 W · 171 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Juan Pablo Varillas29c73.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.151,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Facundo Acosta69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.462,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c1…c741backed Juan Pablo Varillas20c67.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x783f…8f90backed Juan Pablo Varillas18c66.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0512831.3%40 W · 88 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…3f92backed Facundo Acosta80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.522482.6%185 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick80cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked Facundo Acosta66c59.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.449764.9%63 W · 34 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d29…c9eebacked Facundo Acosta66c59.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.447154.9%39 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58f2…692ebacked Facundo Acosta70c55.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7953457.7%308 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Juan Pablo Varillas35c54.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0931643%136 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1c…b4f1backed Facundo Acosta70c51.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3718166.9%121 W · 60 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x023d…23acbacked Juan Pablo Varillas48c48.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0661755.9%345 W · 272 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed Juan Pablo Varillas26c45.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7120836.5%76 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef5c…6ababacked Facundo Acosta66c44.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.159564.2%61 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1cc…1958backed Facundo Acosta66c44.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.155671.4%40 W · 16 L+8.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xddae…fbd0backed Facundo Acosta79c43.75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.195468.5%37 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfaf…064abacked Juan Pablo Varillas28c43.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.222630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5706…514fbacked Juan Pablo Varillas33c42.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+22.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd35e…a1e8backed Facundo Acosta53c41.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.655549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x171f…d613backed Facundo Acosta53c41.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.483158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6436…2bb0backed Juan Pablo Varillas34c41.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Facundo Acosta71c40.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.682,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed7c…0a62backed Facundo Acosta74c39.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.384470.5%31 W · 13 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+44.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd73b…8319backed Juan Pablo Varillas33c34.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.523455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Juan Pablo Varillas40c32.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9658067.8%393 W · 187 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c2…e8b8backed Juan Pablo Varillas42c31.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.973831.6%12 W · 26 L-8.1wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-42.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe99f…0d86backed Juan Pablo Varillas46c29.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.554533.3%15 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Facundo Acosta76c28.92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.915660.7%34 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b4…37d2backed Facundo Acosta70c28.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.421275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9a4…3926backed Facundo Acosta71c27.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0359366.8%396 W · 197 L-0.6wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Facundo Acosta78c25.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5768157.6%392 W · 289 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc003…47a8backed Facundo Acosta71c24.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.173063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked Facundo Acosta56c23.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5519653.1%104 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0af9…5bf2backed Facundo Acosta74c16.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.353073.3%22 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Facundo Acosta75c13.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.462,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.