Venezuela · resolved market
US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3cb3b6facb460f6774f7040f1a7b92d95a10455c3c8698abf3b764ee00424f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0464…9484backed Yes | 11c | 4,648$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…63e5backed Yes | 2c | 2,406$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 2,383$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 1c | 2,248$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…66adbacked Yes | 2c | 2,090$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…73f6backed Yes | 11c | 1,968$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…951dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,826$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,751$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…17cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,724$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,601$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,566$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,547$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 14c | 1,384$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,293$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,248$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 1,171$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,170$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,163$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,050$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 1c | 1,045$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7360…0aa2backed Yes | 3c | 965.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 946.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 898.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 3c | 890.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…7b33backed Yes | 3c | 830.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…0ea0backed Yes | 2c | 787.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…4a27backed Yes | 3c | 740.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43c…c61fbacked Yes | 3c | 724.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8b…a9b8backed Yes | 3c | 714.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5163…08f8backed Yes | 2c | 663.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde7…1803backed Yes | 2c | 628.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…a835backed Yes | 2c | 609.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…9277backed Yes | 3c | 545.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 530.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9c…3925backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…0341backed Yes | 16c | 476.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…6c2ebacked Yes | 3c | 428.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce34…ce40backed Yes | 2c | 422.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…2af0backed Yes | 5c | 404.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…c4b6backed Yes | 9c | 400.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 9c | 400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 389.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…efbebacked Yes | 4c | 367.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…710fbacked Yes | 3c | 357.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 347.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x484b…fcb6backed Yes | 4c | 337.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…2eb7backed Yes | 3c | 334$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 4c | 330$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 4c | 319.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 311.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4a56backed Yes | 10c | 309.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 5c | 305.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…ca9ebacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 255.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…ff48backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…0706backed Yes | 7c | 221.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…8211backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a48…82cebacked Yes | 11c | 169.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…5a12backed Yes | 13c | 146.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b8…cb19backed Yes | 17c | 114.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…cae0backed Yes | 11c | 101.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…522dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b8…e05cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.