TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Trump Family" this week? (December 22 - 28)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,868 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes12c792$95 inLost-$95.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5374…952abacked Yes12c662$79 inLost-$79.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked Yes12c576$69 inLost-$69.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No74c527.42$389 inWon+$138.382835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes21c523.93$111 inLost-$111.266521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x055e…f94fbacked Yes64c439.27$280 inLost-$279.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No51c419.9$214 inWon+$205.781392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.7wins+0.36per pick56cpaid+60.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed Yes39c405.16$157 inLost-$156.991926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes12c378$45 inLost-$45.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed Yes12c319$38 inLost-$38.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+154.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes61c254.49$156 inLost-$155.56911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-85.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes68c171.77$116 inLost-$116.222321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…6c2ebacked Yes30c141.51$42 inLost-$42520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes12c141$17 inLost-$16.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked No47c87.75$41 inWon+$46.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-28.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes71c77.29$55 inLost-$54.884533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc63a…6fc0backed Yes67c75.06$50 inLost-$50.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes63c70.87$44 inLost-$44.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x976c…6c16backed Yes60c62.28$38 inLost-$37.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked No40c60.88$24 inWon+$36.663063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaace…4d5abacked No77c50$39 inWon+$11.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.3wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-75.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes43c43.48$19 inLost-$18.634641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf0…fd08backed Yes68c40.22$28 inLost-$27.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+246.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes45c38.92$17 inLost-$17.4612425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No32c32$10 inWon+$21.76771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+58.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed Yes34c30$10 inLost-$10.1580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed No55c23.76$13 inWon+$10.76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes46c23.75$11 inLost-$10.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No56c20$11 inWon+$8.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost-$101764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No75c16$12 inWon+$4933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1b…bc10backed Yes72c15$11 inLost-$10.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed No74c14$10 inWon+$3.643100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.