TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 22 - 28)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,008 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6112…79c6backed No15c500$75 inWon+$425.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+568.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde6f…4a7bbacked No20c495$99 inWon+$3963100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+206.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes14c272.71$38 inLost-$38.1860%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked No21c189.23$40 inWon+$149.234100%4 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+209.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes11c177.93$20 inLost-$20.223633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No13c175.17$22 inWon+$152.931471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+92.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x055e…f94fbacked No55c124.25$68 inWon+$55.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes33c81.54$27 inLost-$26.674641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f3…1d41backed Yes52c81.32$42 inLost-$42250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes78c77$60 inLost-$60.06850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes45c73.48$33 inLost-$32.7212425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed No47c54.63$26 inWon+$28.951471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae5c…347fbacked No21c48.37$10 inWon+$38.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+165.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed Yes28c37.75$11 inLost-$10.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes72c32.14$23 inLost-$23.146521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed Yes66c30$20 inLost-$19.81926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed No79c30$24 inWon+$6.3580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf64f…3091backed No77c27.64$21 inWon+$6.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f1e…b799backed No79c13.87$11 inWon+$2.97560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.