Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (December 22 - 28)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39833cecd3ed45fc94742b05facf7474bf21cf0a8b395139dee7beb114620782
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2f3…8ac3backed No | 56c | 2,389$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 52c | 754.85$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed Yes | 58c | 594.89$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…79febacked No | 46c | 246.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 18c | 233.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 35c | 193.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 69c | 182.08$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 40c | 164.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…9936backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 109.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 81.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 34c | 79.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…0b6fbacked No | 64c | 74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…c87abacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed No | 75c | 46.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…a0e2backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…2c13backed No | 58c | 41.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…73e1backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 33c | 34.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…474ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 29.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 62c | 21.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (December 22 - 28)this page
- Will Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Baby" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Israel" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Colorado" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dog" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Epstein" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "ISIS" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "November 5th" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Too Late" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Trump Family" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Very Merry Christmas" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.