Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" this week? (December 22 - 28)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fab3ecfae35d5921c0ae825fd7fe0f09b9a7d2251aa7139bba7a0fe6f589668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 60c | 478.23$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 78c | 451.26$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…e89ebacked No | 44c | 342.03$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +209.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 55c | 241.85$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 57c | 226.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 57c | 200.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe078…e707backed Yes | 43c | 164.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 24c | 147.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 131.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 57c | 129.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…7652backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 97.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 47c | 90.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…c5a6backed Yes | 71c | 69.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…bbd7backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 48c | 52.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269e…3c98backed No | 59c | 49.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 57c | 48.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf76f…df4fbacked No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…6c0bbacked No | 79c | 43.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…3bddbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…c87abacked No | 48c | 38.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 61c | 32.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 54c | 30.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd099…3a44backed Yes | 70c | 28.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…43a3backed Yes | 68c | 23.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4d…bd49backed No | 60c | 22.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed No | 74c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 67c | 16.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" this week? (December 22 - 28)this page
- Will Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Baby" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Israel" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Colorado" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dog" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Epstein" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "ISIS" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "November 5th" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Too Late" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Trump Family" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Very Merry Christmas" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.