TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Too Late" this week? (December 22 - 28)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,954 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes17c1,399$238 inLost-$237.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes17c828$141 inLost-$140.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed Yes15c568$85 inLost-$85.2560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+149.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed Yes17c561$95 inLost-$95.3730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes19c518$98 inLost-$98.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+166.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes19c477$91 inLost-$90.63837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+71.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes18c358$64 inLost-$64.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes18c308$55 inLost-$54.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed Yes17c302$51 inLost-$51.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes17c282$48 inLost-$47.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes17c160$27 inLost-$27.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed Yes15c154$23 inLost-$23.120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No64c103.69$67 inWon+$36.92835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes28c101.12$29 inLost-$28.6312425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…6c2ebacked Yes33c91.43$30 inLost-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No70c90$63 inWon+$27.11471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+92.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes30c80$24 inLost-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No74c68.57$51 inWon+$17.91963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed No55c54.99$30 inWon+$24.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes48c44.77$22 inLost-$21.653063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked No47c39.99$19 inWon+$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x69ba…1785backed Yes54c35.41$19 inLost-$19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes43c30.22$13 inLost-$13944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d3…a77bbacked No69c21.71$15 inWon+$6.731127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.9wins-0.35per pick63cpaid-55%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4ee2…a0e2backed No71c20$14 inWon+$5.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No68c15.63$11 inWon+$56771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.