Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Very Merry Christmas" this week? (December 22 - 28)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5595a8e7c3276103230a1296171d7c63d19e92c349e7bad4065c7717c89866d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x055e…f94fbacked No | 1c | 34,351$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 8,083$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 3c | 5,463$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…99d2backed No | 1c | 3,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…b07cbacked No | 4c | 2,055$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…8ac3backed No | 36c | 666.62$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 5c | 476.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…5750backed No | 6c | 452.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…e5a1backed No | 3c | 412.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 7c | 244.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 10c | 166.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…1c04backed No | 13c | 106.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 61c | 106.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 59c | 104.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 61c | 60.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 75c | 32.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…c807backed Yes | 72c | 31.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…7c8ebacked No | 43c | 30.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Very Merry Christmas" this week? (December 22 - 28)this page
- Will Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Baby" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Israel" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Colorado" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dog" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Epstein" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "ISIS" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "November 5th" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Too Late" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Trump Family" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.