TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Israel" this week? (December 22 - 28)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,390 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes9c135.49$13 inLost-$12.551963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29e6…b3f2backed Yes17c100$17 inLost-$17742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe906…5a44backed No57c100$57 inWon+$43757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes61c83.48$51 inLost-$511741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No66c76.2$50 inWon+$26.012835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb1d…6c0bbacked No74c32.22$24 inWon+$8.223100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed No67c30$20 inWon+$9.95580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed No47c30$14 inWon+$161471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No72c27.11$20 inWon+$7.466771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2559…2ef4backed Yes55c21.52$12 inLost-$11.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35a9…c87abacked No74c20$15 inWon+$5.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes62c20$12 inLost-$12.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed No75c13.38$10 inWon+$3.32944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e7…fef1backed No80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.