Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 22 - 28)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b7c342e793ed58242be9211f36262a1e1276eabfd7d181a492884abcbd42cf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 77c | 617.93$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 36c | 600$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 15c | 500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 74c | 256.3$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 64c | 206.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 66c | 184.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x029b…5937backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 57.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…9a6cbacked No | 21c | 53.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 64c | 47.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed Yes | 66c | 42.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +246.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 29c | 41.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…7c8ebacked No | 35c | 33.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 22 - 28)this page
- Will Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Baby" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Israel" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Colorado" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dog" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Epstein" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "ISIS" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "November 5th" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Too Late" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Trump Family" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
- Will Trump say "Very Merry Christmas" this week? (December 22 - 28)Yes won
- Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? (December 22 - 28)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.