TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "ISIS" this week? (December 22 - 28)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,722 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes74c320$237 inWon+$83.42157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed No26c300$78 inLost-$7860%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe906…5a44backed No70c100$70 inLost-$70757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e2b…53a0backed No58c99.99$58 inLost-$57.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes41c89.42$36 inWon+$53.212425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No48c72.91$35 inLost-$35.21471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+92.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x373c…afbcbacked Yes64c68.65$44 inWon+$24.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f10…cbbdbacked Yes52c50$26 inWon+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed No54c48.2$26 inLost-$26.231471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ad9…8039backed No44c45.61$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No36c38.23$14 inLost-$13.896521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35a9…c87abacked No53c28.63$15 inLost-$15.12757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b2…8558backed No52c27.08$14 inLost-$14.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0eb…2d82backed Yes51c20$10 inWon+$9.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.