TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5c95…7652

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: NFL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.78
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.06
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$55.68
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$73.25
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$27.74
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$134
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$50.4
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$96.89
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$208.84
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$75.65
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$46.78
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$31.74
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$22.6
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$12.71
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$25.05
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+283.1%+$59.12
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$23.14
All 23 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-85.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.97
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.6
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$15.95
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.25
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.85
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.8
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.3
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.46
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.37
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Super Bowl LX have between 136M and 140M viewers?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Super Bowl LX have at least 140M viewers?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13.12
Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$340.5
Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+51.5%+$136
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,338Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+148.8%+$1,991.7
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 120 and 130 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$351.46
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 100 and 110 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+483.7%+$157.71
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$210.9
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$54.8
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,533Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,532.89
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+40.5%+$120.09
Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$244
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+150%+$17.4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$20.82
Will Fogo launch a token by September 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$15.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on Friday?backed No Change · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$13.94
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.