TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,086,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,618,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,086,008 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b97…bc9cbacked Yes0c173,993$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.9840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c96,959$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.662920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c36,330$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.746291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c25,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c21,817$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.82630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c14,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c13,523$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.62522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c12,994$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4110126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a41…1a2abacked Yes2c12,107$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-64.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes16c11,836$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90be…8aa6backed Yes0c10,190$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501b…5aebbacked Yes0c10,170$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c10,099$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbab…cad4backed Yes2c10,029$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.18540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11cc…d1debacked Yes1c9,331$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked Yes14c9,115$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299200%0 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c8,905$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.971491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5548…11fdbacked Yes1c8,750$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes12c7,766$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.092729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x087e…51c5backed Yes3c7,694$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked Yes10c6,727$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6302…7917backed Yes13c6,585$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.9660%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Yes0c6,192$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes6c6,042$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.38454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba9…2e70backed Yes1c5,968$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7392…71abbacked Yes17c5,735$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.2425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c5,643$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.092560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes1c5,375$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0211723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c5,223$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.362792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes2c5,118$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.97714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf13d…11aabacked Yes1c5,009$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Yes22c5,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes3c5,000$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.58329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes17c5,000$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c4,997$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.533042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d05…d278backed Yes3c4,401$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8261…89f5backed Yes1c4,335$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes4c4,205$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes9c4,198$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.363221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf265…9dd8backed Yes0c3,800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b5…3f68backed Yes0c3,800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes0c3,573$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb08b…4b55backed Yes2c3,494$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes8c3,439$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4618311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes2c3,427$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.561921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-68.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed Yes23c3,390$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.83119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-83.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7d…b088backed Yes3c3,200$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes12c3,145$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.72977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c3,060$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.172560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c3,059$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…a2a1backed Yes31c2,976$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes13c2,908$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.64567.1%4 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes4c2,890$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.672425%6 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c2,495$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.281,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x560b…85d7backed Yes0c2,401$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes5c2,381$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.11147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-84.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes12c2,343$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9518323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes13c2,280$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.752110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x064a…6007backed Yes16c2,268$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed Yes9c2,260$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.091323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-63.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes2c2,208$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.89283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c2,089$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaca…a864backed Yes0c2,058$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes14c2,000$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2841233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603735.1%13 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986a…61d0backed Yes5c1,963$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed Yes20c1,936$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes3c1,897$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.94220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd663…ec76backed Yes3c1,858$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes4c1,817$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x551b…e339backed Yes17c1,768$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes4c1,736$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-94.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99c9backed Yes29c1,730$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb36…c2b6backed Yes31c1,713$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5281020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes4c1,707$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.631225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,670$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.85731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c1,653$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.88486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c1,549$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.68790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes16c1,537$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.813240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6268…c403backed Yes13c1,389$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6539…23adbacked Yes7c1,384$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9735…657abacked Yes1c1,376$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes13c1,250$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.256048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes16c1,250$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b25…6146backed Yes5c1,187$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa43…c686backed Yes8c1,181$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.981526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Yes18c1,167$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.391442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c2…735dbacked Yes2c1,130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.38120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…61e4backed Yes13c1,103$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b3…de01backed Yes12c1,009$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1709447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes3c999.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…548fbacked Yes17c999.99$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d95…d4bebacked Yes10c999.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes14c965.07$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1424315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18fa…3730backed Yes4c889$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.451361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+53.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0918…2d34backed Yes5c880$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed Yes20c879$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.322045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c81…8865backed Yes15c843.02$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.32119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.