TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,032,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,892,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,032,011 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 562 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd61e…c34fbacked No1c91,939$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.15150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8f…c145backed No4c89,666$3,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,447.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No0c56,074$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.49100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed No1c40,591$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.534814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c32,048$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.662560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd4…ed58backed No0c30,797$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbab…cad4backed No5c29,998$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x811c…6e0fbacked No7c24,863$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x657b…3992backed Yes79c22,333$17,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,757.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c21,554$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.2326312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c20,080$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.842560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No2c18,454$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.391717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c17,191$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.121713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes78c16,858$13,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,724.164360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c16,466$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.012522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cb…867fbacked No1c14,962$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No5c14,594$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.5230127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe748…2b23backed No0c13,441$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c13,200$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.486291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c11,432$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.193042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No18c10,815$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.764017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No1c10,750$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.47591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a41…1a2abacked No7c10,136$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.88425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-64.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de7…6190backed No1c9,904$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc04a…f010backed No0c9,500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No13c9,403$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.398923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c9,180$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.112792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No5c8,993$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.97329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked Yes78c8,714$6,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed No1c8,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.861435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No16c7,646$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.9115452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No5c7,630$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395567.1%4 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No13c7,622$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.5920148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5449…eb21backed No2c6,830$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked No9c5,504$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.2120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed No6c5,345$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.016010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c2…612abacked No10c5,163$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes77c4,606$3,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.8118323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes67c4,343$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.133046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecd7…c614backed No14c4,210$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.6860%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb6…9d7cbacked No0c4,175$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b8…b514backed Yes76c3,889$2,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No1c3,707$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.61731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No3c3,571$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100593.4%2 W · 57 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b3…eeb2backed No5c3,450$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.291921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-68.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01fb…51c9backed No0c3,423$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed No8c3,340$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5063…773dbacked Yes78c3,278$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7432…c16abacked No1c3,278$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Yes72c3,209$2,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x583e…b75abacked Yes65c3,191$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No17c3,137$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.321421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-69.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xef82…5ca4backed No2c3,004$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No4c3,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.985026%13 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a6c…212dbacked Yes70c2,993$2,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No1c2,968$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.77790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7fc…4c9cbacked No1c2,857$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No14c2,851$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.092729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2e…7d4dbacked No1c2,820$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-56.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c5…1d0abacked No8c2,751$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-37.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed No11c2,714$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.152425%6 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked No12c2,453$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b0…33d9backed No1c2,391$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe788…2c65backed No1c2,316$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…0ca3backed No1c2,281$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42c…8d31backed No38c2,173$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No1c2,154$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.35420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5584…6e2abacked No12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.992010%2 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcce9…fbe4backed No1c1,972$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked No12c1,964$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.031225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes67c1,912$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.443043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c1,895$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.6840712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No24c1,891$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.2725122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7460…31e8backed No1c1,888$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc529…4f2cbacked No16c1,875$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked No9c1,873$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.97100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c7…a2febacked Yes75c1,863$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No16c1,772$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9118311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No4c1,667$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.761867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c1,653$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.241,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked No1c1,649$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.97330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93a6…cdd4backed Yes71c1,623$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b04…aca6backed No9c1,617$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7577…8fb9backed No8c1,472$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No6c1,463$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.233627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No9c1,434$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.623622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf13d…11aabacked No3c1,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No2c1,325$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b2…7d7fbacked No1c1,289$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb4…fe12backed Yes78c1,275$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.11366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed No16c1,262$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe676…c6f7backed No2c1,261$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d0…6884backed Yes79c1,256$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc84…20fdbacked No2c1,252$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f5…0044backed Yes79c1,201$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7c…c08ebacked No17c1,200$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.991723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid+8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc5b…d4f3backed No5c1,185$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No13c1,180$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.41855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No13c1,180$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.