TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,647,966
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,987,164

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,647,966 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c423,724$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.392920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095c…de88backed Yes0c136,378$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.38210%0 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c119,876$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.75120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes0c96,892$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.89290%0 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c67,156$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.061491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f2…39f2backed Yes0c59,350$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.35140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Yes0c58,811$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c49,999$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes1c49,966$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd497…cf2dbacked Yes0c47,338$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.34190%0 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes0c43,526$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.686010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb101…2075backed Yes0c25,356$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c23,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c18,887$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89430%0 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c17,975$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.98150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes1c16,200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.944017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c14,440$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44200%0 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63fc…9084backed Yes0c12,740$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes0c10,808$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.15700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c10,778$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes0c10,271$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.44147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-84.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…b64bbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92dc…5503backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c10,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5548…11fdbacked Yes0c9,750$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c8,090$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.842003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2465…e3eabacked Yes0c8,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes1c6,964$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e4…8031backed Yes0c6,206$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ea…cd7bbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…b1ecbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882f…5967backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce0c…7048backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807c…f1e3backed Yes2c4,551$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.31319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…032dbacked Yes0c4,466$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50fb…e35dbacked Yes3c4,331$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f49…abecbacked Yes0c4,094$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3e1…389dbacked Yes0c4,094$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa900…5d03backed Yes0c4,094$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aba…6358backed Yes0c4,094$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff8…c22abacked Yes0c4,094$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c8…6e0ebacked Yes0c4,094$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes1c4,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40af…2e4dbacked Yes0c3,916$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134e…c9f7backed Yes0c3,916$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ae…69ccbacked Yes0c3,912$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5455…8fbcbacked Yes0c3,912$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d9b…ea9bbacked Yes0c3,912$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2661…3d73backed Yes0c3,912$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes1c3,700$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.72711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+198.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,641$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.831,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c02…e3d3backed Yes0c3,629$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c3,597$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.582522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa29a…09c7backed Yes1c3,462$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c17…884bbacked Yes1c3,286$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,875$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.361754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes0c2,849$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.722560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb162…6667backed Yes1c2,100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-65%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes1c2,001$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-94.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+89.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,927$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.722792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Yes1c1,724$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-50.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes1c1,721$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.03195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick11cpaid+31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44b8…6459backed Yes2c1,689$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-46.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6a…18eabacked Yes3c1,488$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c1,459$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3066…6895backed Yes1c1,455$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes1c1,297$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56567.1%4 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes1c1,296$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.99454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0b…9538backed Yes2c1,034$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes2c1,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18200%0 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0100…a303backed Yes2c999.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes2c911.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3419…58f3backed Yes2c883.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.980%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2696…daa2backed Yes1c877.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf191…06e5backed Yes2c773.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes2c673.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes2c573.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4189…cf53backed Yes3c505.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9190…294dbacked Yes2c473.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.