TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,797,524
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,592,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,797,524 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c110,888$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.362920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c49,998$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c21…adafbacked Yes0c45,435$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.87110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c41,633$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.381491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b97…bc9cbacked Yes0c33,993$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x811c…6e0fbacked Yes6c33,990$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c26,436$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.786291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c20,149$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.410126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c19,411$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.072522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd4…ed58backed Yes0c18,714$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c18,092$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.342003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c14,537$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbab…cad4backed Yes3c12,933$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.93540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes11c12,563$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.341241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+93.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes2c12,473$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.946010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes4c12,198$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.65567.1%4 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes14c12,061$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.39140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c11,055$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7714421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes2c10,323$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.42454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes5c10,307$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.283315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc14a…9e30backed Yes0c10,210$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf888…415fbacked Yes0c10,210$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e4…faf1backed Yes0c10,210$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48a6…412bbacked Yes0c10,200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4df…4c65backed Yes0c10,150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c5…b611backed Yes0c10,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d80…7375backed Yes0c10,050$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…2974backed Yes0c10,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c9,804$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.72560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c7,794$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.242792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c7,501$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.383042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5815…4d68backed Yes3c7,375$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x560b…85d7backed Yes1c6,806$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5548…11fdbacked Yes1c6,753$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba9…2e70backed Yes1c6,611$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c6…9508backed Yes0c6,375$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11cc…d1debacked Yes0c6,275$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c6,220$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.17591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes0c6,115$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.511723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes6c5,818$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.284017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c5,320$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.47486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes7c5,075$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.432425%6 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes5c4,717$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.93195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick11cpaid+31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf452…c0efbacked Yes0c4,550$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes5c4,466$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.99130%0 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x552b…dfa9backed Yes0c3,815$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f1…659abacked Yes0c3,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes4c3,500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66d1…fce3backed Yes0c3,446$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes1c3,393$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.97329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked Yes2c3,361$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed Yes6c3,176$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d83…da91backed Yes0c3,042$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3fe…6ab4backed Yes5c2,893$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3264…670dbacked Yes5c2,801$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes6c2,742$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.052110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4a3…f980backed Yes2c2,730$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x887d…634ebacked Yes13c2,667$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe788…2c65backed Yes1c2,612$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c5…4109backed Yes10c2,600$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.58190%0 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc254…aa9dbacked Yes5c2,302$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes3c2,210$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.11921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-68.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30ce…be86backed Yes0c2,201$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b3c…8727backed Yes0c2,183$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b04…aca6backed Yes3c2,183$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c2,107$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8118311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c2,093$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.47700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf13d…11aabacked Yes2c2,080$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5319…18ecbacked Yes1c2,040$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3661…6aa4backed Yes1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5584…6e2abacked Yes2c2,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442010%2 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes7c1,937$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.171225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes15c1,900$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.653426.5%9 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9735…657abacked Yes1c1,804$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215c…f0b6backed Yes6c1,767$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7364…f19cbacked Yes6c1,687$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b5b…c3b3backed Yes9c1,642$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes4c1,641$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.33283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes7c1,589$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6118323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,543$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.11,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c1,540$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes3c1,519$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.577035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58a6…20f9backed Yes5c1,496$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7198…e4d5backed Yes3c1,486$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf137…518ebacked Yes1c1,480$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes4c1,476$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe172…075fbacked Yes1c1,468$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,435$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.592560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c1,404$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2103…4ff5backed Yes4c1,400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.11520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes6c1,400$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.61723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid+8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c2…612abacked Yes5c1,394$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca4f…ff9ebacked Yes4c1,387$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes4c1,373$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+588.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x086f…34d8backed Yes6c1,339$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3f…3297backed Yes6c1,292$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c1,290$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.992977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes4c1,232$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7625837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.