TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450–475 in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,558 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes20c2,646$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.581240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x294d…b362backed Yes30c1,953$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.582152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes40c1,687$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.8235151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes23c848.95$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.356548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed57…99a3backed Yes71c829.36$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.8930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes44c817.19$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.313751.1%70 W · 67 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No69c750.73$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.116864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed No79c728.37$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.45639.3%22 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e3…fd17backed Yes70c709.89$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes17c500.35$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+19.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No79c474.86$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.047332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb460…041fbacked Yes23c444.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb2…c640backed No46c444.14$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.144738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes27c432.07$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.121,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc5…08dbbacked No65c427.69$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.65837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes36c419.92$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.315628.6%16 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes17c404$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.697726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes28c359.83$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.881,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe704…dcccbacked No15c353.8$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.731414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x573c…1b61backed No76c342.35$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes15c334.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.211505.3%8 W · 142 L+0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes65c312.49$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.982133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e54…6631backed No74c309.77$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.41944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes58c292.36$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9948234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No31c291.38$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.864452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes23c290.73$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.51560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+85.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes20c287.67$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.399038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab9f…570cbacked Yes52c284.35$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+96.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No72c280.48$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.549324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb61d…f87cbacked No73c251.81$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No19c249.44$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.189026.7%24 W · 66 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes72c227.04$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.4710442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1443838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ce…db56backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d65…beb4backed Yes13c192.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-35.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3054…9837backed Yes27c175.69$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No58c171.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5921820.2%44 W · 174 L-22.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb15b…5215backed Yes54c170.71$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.13650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes19c166.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+176.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc22…4557backed Yes70c153.89$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No24c153.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.883622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Yes23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.53737.8%14 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.04425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+132.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fab…f54abacked Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0787…45f6backed Yes16c141.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.64333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5793…6977backed Yes22c138.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c128.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1116418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x01f8…7abdbacked Yes32c128.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb5d…2ad5backed Yes61c122.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b56…d1e1backed Yes62c117.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes70c115.67$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.297577.3%58 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9000…bb78backed Yes22c113.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a22…5692backed Yes33c112.91$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c95…7652backed Yes15c104$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89e3…8fa1backed Yes30c100.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa05…a764backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+539.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes21c98.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+168.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes18c90$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2324356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No70c74.46$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.342536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x194a…7005backed Yes31c73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc1…5216backed No65c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410827.8%30 W · 78 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bbf…5304backed Yes22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6991…b08abacked Yes22c63.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6985…afdfbacked Yes59c61.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No62c59.38$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.399124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47e0…6510backed Yes50c58.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacc2…c707backed Yes35c57.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes28c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5480…51f3backed Yes21c52.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked Yes68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…d89dbacked Yes59c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3121…dec8backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa02f…23bfbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No74c49.72$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.875937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…02adbacked Yes26c48.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.781850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b72…124fbacked Yes27c42.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes35c40.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.89922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb360…d73ebacked Yes30c37.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+127.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef06…a203backed No72c28.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…acd7backed No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.410749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c16.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3486338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc90f…0d49backed No80c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.83100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.