Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $475–500 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65b7be6b71a467baa54b2bab04418d70e97b3aafba86f4c115a2e696e90bce24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 913.81$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.21 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 22c | 900.38$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed No | 73c | 711.36$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.58 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 31c | 579.54$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.79 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 19c | 560.52$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 37c | 553.45$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 17c | 518.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 29c | 450$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 71c | 429.88$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 36c | 424.01$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 20c | 376$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…42d8backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d65…beb4backed Yes | 11c | 316.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…9af9backed Yes | 17c | 313.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 31c | 290.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 27c | 285$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…6510backed Yes | 37c | 279.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 26c | 253.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…1c15backed Yes | 36c | 223.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…6631backed No | 63c | 208.34$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Yes | 36c | 205.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 31c | 200.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…db56backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 199.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 193.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 185.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ac…ab83backed Yes | 26c | 185.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…1cd8backed Yes | 27c | 183.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 172$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 27c | 166.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +176.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc5…08dbbacked Yes | 14c | 164.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 10c | 152.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 148.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 77c | 141.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c9…a809backed Yes | 14c | 126.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 63c | 125.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec7…4c09backed Yes | 16c | 122.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 40c | 117.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9509…3afdbacked Yes | 13c | 112.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…6977backed Yes | 33c | 107.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…c707backed Yes | 19c | 104.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…4df7backed No | 70c | 102$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…c515backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 14c | 98.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…e39dbacked Yes | 15c | 92.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed Yes | 34c | 81.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed No | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 22c | 74.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 72.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7548…8ef8backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca7…94e3backed Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…dcccbacked Yes | 27c | 62.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 27c | 57.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…7ad4backed Yes | 37c | 54.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…d823backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 54.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 23c | 53.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…e2ecbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…0363backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…124fbacked Yes | 34c | 42.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 36.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 71c | 35.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 74c | 32.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad6…315dbacked Yes | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 71c | 29.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $475–500 in 2025?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $300–325 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $325–350 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $350–375 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $375–400 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400–425 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425–450 in 2025?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450–475 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$300 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.