Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425–450 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3f6b4ebaf10e87b968d0bee1dd59a2ef3afc995c1858dae5d88680eb9674d7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 10c | 4,311$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,880.56 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 16c | 1,734$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.52 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 1,485$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.29 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 1,482$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.82 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x346b…3df4backed Yes | 20c | 938$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964a…b370backed Yes | 8c | 534.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +542%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…f5e6backed No | 80c | 521$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 73c | 485.51$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 11c | 479.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.38 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b36…cd58backed No | 80c | 417$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 65c | 344.65$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 322.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.65 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…e6c6backed Yes | 20c | 316$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 19c | 313.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ee2dbacked Yes | 20c | 306.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed Yes | 14c | 298$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Yes | 23c | 270.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 260.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 258$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 20c | 217.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.06 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…372bbacked Yes | 39c | 216.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb360…d73ebacked Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…99adbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 70c | 191.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.02 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…a0d7backed Yes | 12c | 172.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 7c | 166.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +176.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Yes | 25c | 147.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…6631backed No | 28c | 143.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…8442backed Yes | 11c | 141.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +812.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed Yes | 10c | 130.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.42 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed Yes | 8c | 130.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 38c | 126$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 9c | 115.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…2453backed Yes | 15c | 110.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 100.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 13c | 99.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…29c7backed Yes | 25c | 98.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +292.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 17c | 98.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc5…08dbbacked Yes | 22c | 83.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…5215backed Yes | 34c | 70.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 39c | 65.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 74c | 56.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…99a3backed No | 46c | 31.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425–450 in 2025?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $300–325 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $325–350 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $350–375 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $375–400 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400–425 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450–475 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $475–500 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$300 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.