Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x776b44ab22c90b2f728018237eec350cf3e8d2ba37cac59fb7e62e5eddad01d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc4c…392fbacked Yes | 37c | 11,282$4,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,221.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 24c | 7,591$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.32 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 70c | 5,770$4,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.67 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…31aebacked Yes | 25c | 1,631$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 71c | 1,227$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.82 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 61c | 1,124$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.99 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 74c | 1,054$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.34 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 30c | 922.97$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.59 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 37c | 819.54$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.66 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 29c | 759.59$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.71 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 65c | 704.11$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.23 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 59c | 657.65$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…4df7backed No | 67c | 629.88$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 43c | 600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 62c | 584.45$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.54 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87af…04fcbacked Yes | 37c | 560$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed No | 55c | 511.11$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3351…4e2dbacked No | 65c | 449.08$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 434.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…c37ebacked No | 67c | 429.11$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 57c | 425.62$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.56 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 413.15$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ac…ab83backed No | 58c | 404.84$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 58c | 402.8$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 56c | 385.08$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 24c | 359.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 31c | 342.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked No | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…f466backed No | 66c | 302.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62bf…6e7ebacked No | 61c | 299.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 27c | 292.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf428…88f9backed No | 61c | 275$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d65…beb4backed Yes | 13c | 272.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 77c | 261.27$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 31c | 254.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 28c | 250$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked No | 62c | 243.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 225.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…99adbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 73c | 197$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 31c | 194.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…45f6backed No | 62c | 191.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 6c | 190.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 15c | 190.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 64c | 187.6$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 186.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 170$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 39c | 166.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +176.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 166.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc5…08dbbacked Yes | 17c | 161.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…e2ecbacked No | 60c | 159.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 133.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a3…01f8backed Yes | 38c | 131.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…04bfbacked Yes | 20c | 122.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faf…6efbbacked Yes | 35c | 119.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No | 78c | 111$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…e1b6backed Yes | 18c | 104.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Yes | 42c | 94.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 17c | 94.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 40c | 88.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 60c | 79.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffb…f435backed Yes | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573c…1b61backed No | 60c | 74.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 20c | 74.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked No | 58c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9509…3afdbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…c707backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 40c | 61.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c9…a809backed Yes | 50c | 59.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ff…ee4ebacked Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…51d3backed No | 79c | 54.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…d1a0backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…812bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed No | 62c | 49.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…deadbacked No | 62c | 48.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 37c | 43.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…124fbacked Yes | 25c | 42.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed No | 63c | 36.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…7ad4backed Yes | 34c | 35.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…e40bbacked Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…ecddbacked Yes | 37c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…50d9backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 64c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…02adbacked No | 66c | 25.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 75c | 23.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked No | 60c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf0…7a05backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9064…2f30backed No | 80c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…0d49backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $300–325 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $325–350 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $350–375 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $375–400 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400–425 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425–450 in 2025?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450–475 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $475–500 in 2025?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$300 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.