TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,800,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,700,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,800,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 562 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x395d…21ebbacked No0c3,301,375$9,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,682.6570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd15b…a7fdbacked No0c314,421$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.7840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce5b…047abacked No0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06cc…0b12backed No0c299,012$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.4750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd38…7596backed No0c100,393$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c95…7652backed No0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea66…2903backed No0c72,527$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2746…a54ebacked No0c62,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1dd…5625backed No0c58,385$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c51,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ca…5074backed No0c30,500$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed No13c28,010$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,700650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a8…c9bbbacked No0c26,683$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71a6…c7ffbacked No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0668…7349backed No0c22,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed20…84f1backed No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb24…8941backed No0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc33…633ebacked No0c18,287$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked No0c18,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2533…3932backed No0c17,025$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36cf…eca6backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8754…2db6backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9449…3e6cbacked No0c15,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked No0c15,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed41…a389backed No0c15,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes57c14,676$8,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,247.014634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb80d…4060backed No0c14,591$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddfb…359fbacked No0c13,667$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411323.1%3 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick7cpaid+124.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No0c13,193$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.885111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66e6…526cbacked No0c13,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes38c12,503$4,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,692.032157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27b4…ebb0backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eca…1deabacked No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ee…f0d1backed No0c12,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf68…928dbacked No0c11,830$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4371…a2ebbacked No0c11,559$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes49c11,203$5,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,740.582653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3655…d2babacked No0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed No0c10,573$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x231f…8a81backed No0c10,333$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…d4ecbacked No0c10,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa89…a673backed No0c10,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x740f…6b2abacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169f…d837backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd636…1004backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc8…620cbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed5f…94acbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf564…09dcbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7423…44e1backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f5d…a8a4backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b19…c1f1backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes40c9,377$3,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,621.1719236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No1c9,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdaf7…7ae4backed No0c8,826$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No1c8,021$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1832029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0108…0d26backed No37c7,684$2,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,843.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd890…9949backed No0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed No71c7,000$4,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,954.67825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x48aa…54e5backed No56c6,808$3,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,800.541118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510e…641fbacked No0c6,750$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1838…fb4ebacked No0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…4623backed No0c6,638$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80f…127bbacked No0c6,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e24…c7e6backed No0c6,117$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94bf…3f5fbacked No0c5,870$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2460%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…8218backed No40c5,862$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b6f…7429backed No0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1a…aceabacked No0c5,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc0…35f5backed No0c5,333$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes25c5,286$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,953.713935.9%14 W · 25 L+9.5wins+0.24per pick12cpaid+185%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x461b…ca27backed No0c5,124$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997a…1b8fbacked No1c5,070$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.170%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf8b…6433backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cd…f0c5backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c4…444fbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb2…158ebacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3e…dc7dbacked No64c5,000$3,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b48…ecdcbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf9…4665backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No16c4,681$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-80.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x444b…add1backed No72c4,371$3,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53fe…90e6backed No1c4,324$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No16c4,171$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.6214241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes64c4,160$2,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.326038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No40c3,703$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.6110055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d4b…e0f4backed No1c3,504$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.03520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ab…d376backed Yes34c3,413$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,252.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee9f…b134backed No66c3,413$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94da…463fbacked No0c3,258$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No43c3,208$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.511127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-58.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No8c3,045$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0322347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes38c3,000$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.9632626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d2…952ebacked No42c2,596$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.31714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed Yes28c2,517$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.711030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23d9…3a2ebacked Yes73c2,509$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b62…cadfbacked No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadbf…da7bbacked No1c2,422$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No10c2,310$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.284729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.