TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,511,188
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,295,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,511,188 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 887 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x395d…21ebbacked No0c6,034,712$19,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,727.5170%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd15b…a7fdbacked No0c495,000$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed No0c327,051$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed No0c300,300$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No3c250,658$8,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,236.834634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No1c233,174$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,354.51816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c200,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No0c159,042$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.4332626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f1…7e74backed No0c143,770$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f1…456fbacked No0c143,153$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cf…137cbacked No0c118,698$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a5…641dbacked No0c111,820$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed No0c107,000$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1071338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92e5…d129backed No2c102,929$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.84633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f3…5844backed No0c85,730$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9339…a56fbacked No0c84,969$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92fa…7d02backed No1c60,103$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…b561backed No0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x833b…d4bbbacked No2c56,618$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No0c56,002$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.394531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x648d…632bbacked No0c52,727$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes37c52,175$19,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,656.4119236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe120…682fbacked No0c51,850$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c60…27f5backed No1c47,853$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes44c47,264$20,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,280.972157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3f1…bdc6backed No0c47,100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.11850%9 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40b…d149backed No0c44,990$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c68…87abbacked No0c44,880$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed No4c44,038$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.11560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20fa…19f7backed No4c42,968$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed20…84f1backed No0c42,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked No0c40,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fe…51a4backed No1c38,532$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee8…79dfbacked No10c36,861$3,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,735.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-61.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed No1c36,692$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c32,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7b…8e33backed No1c30,424$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x040f…fb57backed No0c30,262$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf044…8e78backed No0c30,029$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-71%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1d…6c0bbacked No0c29,460$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked No16c28,274$4,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4372638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6d8…dfebbacked No0c27,891$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.11020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6944…4efabacked No0c27,023$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5526…0456backed No0c26,175$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cef…4017backed No0c26,151$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No2c25,166$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.8832029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa89…a673backed No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd38…7596backed No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddfb…359fbacked No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick7cpaid+124.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf6…a92bbacked No1c23,707$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c4…78c6backed No0c23,333$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No15c22,674$3,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,465.916144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc20c…e2bdbacked No8c21,278$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.591154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No11c20,918$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.614266.7%28 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1410…a67dbacked No0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+135.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked No20c19,999$3,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,964.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe136…82e8backed No0c19,833$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No7c19,822$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.78812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-80.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e51…53cabacked No1c19,143$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.63333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-44.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d45…1b95backed No0c18,070$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb02…dbb0backed No0c17,928$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71b4…a002backed No4c17,812$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe507…ab17backed No1c17,385$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea4…8ff7backed No1c17,229$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No1c16,757$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.4210127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e66…ff67backed No0c15,468$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+354.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73eb…e407backed No0c15,464$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d0…f949backed No0c15,087$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6c…cd75backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8017…3366backed No1c14,636$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed No0c14,373$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f50…1a67backed No0c14,200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No0c14,159$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.773026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes12c14,085$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,347.223935.9%14 W · 25 L+9.5wins+0.24per pick12cpaid+185%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x81d9…2737backed No2c14,044$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeceb…8d0dbacked No57c14,000$7,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,919.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7389…67f8backed No0c13,493$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc372…dda1backed No0c13,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No1c12,926$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.42323.1%1 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-77.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed No46c12,773$5,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,917.882236.4%8 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xadbf…da7bbacked No1c12,655$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked No0c12,620$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.48812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed No61c12,500$7,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,603.11825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc496…a610backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc736…1fc2backed No0c11,750$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa9…680abacked No1c11,528$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3859…d4ecbacked No0c11,027$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes46c10,951$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,866.42653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7cea…5489backed No1c10,680$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes67c10,664$7,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,515.362657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6347…36febacked No0c10,637$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed No42c10,615$4,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,430.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ac…67b8backed No0c10,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x106e…8f8ebacked No0c10,472$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes79c10,457$8,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.48825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb2a…6bfebacked No33c10,295$3,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,355.32540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+712.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes75c10,031$7,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,556.658231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed No0c10,020$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff69…bd15backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.