TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe136…82e8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Movies, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 56 out of 100; worst AI at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST2123.8%5 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+527.4%+$263.69
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+475.1%+$237.55
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+450.1%+$270.05
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$149
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$130
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+399.8%+$399.82
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+222.9%+$222.9
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.07
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+115.7%+$53.22
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.24
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+385.2%+$577.86
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$38.19
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.53
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$161
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$316
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+188.3%+$131.79
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+283%+$424.53
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$82
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+201%+$267.35
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+135.3%+$135.33
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+105.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+123.9%+$83
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$64
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+114.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$163.16
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+649.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+649.9%+$974.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$39.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$155
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.